Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
10
Up 40%
1 arb excluded
$379.74
-$387.56
Smart Money Signal
4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 37¢ | $386.88 | — | -$386.88 | 57% 70965-54043 (125008) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 39.7¢ | $162.15 | $92.08 | -$70.08 | 54% 15356-13237 (28593) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.1¢ | $54.4 | $92.08 | +$37.67 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.7¢ | $107.75 | — | -$107.75 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 67¢ | $100.19 | $99.19 | -$1 | 51% 7651-7211 (14862) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $88.11 | $89 | +$0.89 | 93% 23541-1774 (25315) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 69.7¢ | $53.21 | $57.85 | +$8.49 | 64% 23325-12863 (36188) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 93.6¢ | $13.87 | $14.81 | +$0.94 | 63% 51987-30635 (82622) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $18.05 | $18.81 | +$0.76 | 64% 40142-22964 (63106) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $5.67 | $8 | +$2.33 | 52% 90403-84904 (175307) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 27.9¢ | $9.35 | — | -$9.35 | 55% 17859-14473 (32332) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 12¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 51% 20092-19247 (39339) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $0.74 | — | -$0.74 | 46% 7970-9410 (17380) |
Invested
$386.88
Value
—
PnL
-$386.88
Record
57%
70965-54043 (125008)
Invested
$162.15
Value
$92.08
PnL
-$70.08
Record
54%
15356-13237 (28593)
Both legs:
Invested
$100.19
Value
$99.19
PnL
-$1
Record
51%
7651-7211 (14862)
Invested
$88.11
Value
$89
PnL
+$0.89
Record
93%
23541-1774 (25315)
Invested
$53.21
Value
$57.85
PnL
+$8.49
Record
64%
23325-12863 (36188)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$13.87
Value
$14.81
PnL
+$0.94
Record
63%
51987-30635 (82622)
ohioism<$100Invested
$18.05
Value
$18.81
PnL
+$0.76
Record
64%
40142-22964 (63106)
Invested
$5.67
Value
$8
PnL
+$2.33
Record
52%
90403-84904 (175307)
Invested
$9.35
Value
—
PnL
-$9.35
Record
55%
17859-14473 (32332)
Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
51%
20092-19247 (39339)
Invested
$0.74
Value
—
PnL
-$0.74
Record
46%
7970-9410 (17380)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $99.19
hoodquant
Down — $89
aaa221
Down — $57.85
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $14.81
ohioism
Down — $18.81
dvasdkasodk
Down — $8
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0