Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 77%
2 arb excluded
$2.1K
$195.37
Smart Money Signal
10 of 14 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $848.43 | $857 | +$8.57 | 93% 23498-1772 (25270) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 46.7¢ | $379.65 | $666.84 | +$287.19 | 54% 15350-13232 (28582) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 56.6¢ | $99.97 | $110 | +$10.03 | 51% 7617-7193 (14810) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.6¢ | $43.6 | $110 | +$66.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.6¢ | $56.37 | — | -$56.37 | |
 UpandDownSyndrome | Downavg 97.2¢ | $104.63 | $107.62 | +$2.99 | 63% 51950-30621 (82571) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.9¢ | $84.98 | — | -$84.98 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
 ohioism | Downavg 64¢ | $64 | $100 | +$36 | 64% 40124-22950 (63074) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 54.4¢ | $105.64 | — | -$105.64 | 57% 70922-54007 (124929) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $46.95 | $76.67 | +$29.72 | 67% 99557-47950 (147507) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33¢ | $25.3 | $76.67 | +$51.37 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.5¢ | $21.65 | — | -$21.65 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 56.7¢ | $42.31 | $44.86 | +$19.12 | 64% 23273-12819 (36092) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 64¢ | $19.1 | $29.84 | +$10.74 | 56% 58095-44840 (102935) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 67.2¢ | $24.43 | $20.16 | -$4.27 | 52% 90356-84870 (175226) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 66.5¢ | $16.95 | $25.5 | +$8.55 | 55% 17817-14432 (32249) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $11.66 | $22 | +$10.34 | 58% 60561-44221 (104782) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $6.79 | $13.58 | +$6.79 | 58% 51007-37153 (88160) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.03 | — | -$0.03 | 66% 112191-58626 (170817) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 89.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20087-19234 (39321) |
Invested
$848.43
Value
$857
PnL
+$8.57
Record
93%
23498-1772 (25270)
Invested
$379.65
Value
$666.84
PnL
+$287.19
Record
54%
15350-13232 (28582)
Invested
$99.97
Value
$110
PnL
+$10.03
Record
51%
7617-7193 (14810)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndromeInvested
$104.63
Value
$107.62
PnL
+$2.99
Record
63%
51950-30621 (82571)
Invested
$84.98
Value
—
PnL
-$84.98
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
ohioismInvested
$64
Value
$100
PnL
+$36
Record
64%
40124-22950 (63074)
Invested
$105.64
Value
—
PnL
-$105.64
Record
57%
70922-54007 (124929)
Invested
$46.95
Value
$76.67
PnL
+$29.72
Record
67%
99557-47950 (147507)
Both legs:
Invested
$42.31
Value
$44.86
PnL
+$19.12
Record
64%
23273-12819 (36092)
Invested
$19.1
Value
$29.84
PnL
+$10.74
Record
56%
58095-44840 (102935)
Invested
$24.43
Value
$20.16
PnL
-$4.27
Record
52%
90356-84870 (175226)
Invested
$16.95
Value
$25.5
PnL
+$8.55
Record
55%
17817-14432 (32249)
Invested
$11.66
Value
$22
PnL
+$10.34
Record
58%
60561-44221 (104782)
Invested
$6.79
Value
$13.58
PnL
+$6.79
Record
58%
51007-37153 (88160)
Invested
$0.03
Value
—
PnL
-$0.03
Record
66%
112191-58626 (170817)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20087-19234 (39321)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $857
aswfadq1555
Down — $666.84
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $107.62
38791873984189
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
Down — $100
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Down — $44.86
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $29.84