Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 23% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
13
Down 23%
2 arb excluded
$645.25
-$178.12
Smart Money Signal
3 of 13 top traders (23%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 25.6¢ | $259.04 | — | -$259.04 | 57% 70901-53981 (124882) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 45.1¢ | $174.46 | $85.38 | -$89.07 | 68% 99525-47913 (147438) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 81¢ | $69.18 | $85.38 | +$16.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.1¢ | $105.27 | — | -$105.27 | |
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 68.8¢ | $103.38 | $117.06 | +$13.68 | 54% 15343-13227 (28570) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $100.86 | $101.88 | +$1.02 | 93% 23467-1770 (25237) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 69.9¢ | $97.66 | $99.01 | +$1.35 | 51% 7596-7161 (14757) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 69.9¢ | $69.21 | $99.01 | +$29.8 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.2¢ | $28.45 | — | -$28.45 | |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $59.16 | $86.99 | +$27.84 | 54% 14469-12303 (26772) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 69.2¢ | $58.78 | $33.03 | +$18.54 | 64% 23206-12791 (35997) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 74.3¢ | $25.8 | $20.53 | -$5.27 | 55% 17781-14392 (32173) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 82.9¢ | $22.43 | $27.06 | +$4.63 | 63% 51921-30603 (82524) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 68.1¢ | $21.79 | $20.43 | +$4.15 | 51% 20077-19224 (39301) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $15.95 | $15.97 | +$0.02 | 59% 62251-43417 (105668) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $10.2 | $20 | +$9.8 | 56% 58073-44827 (102900) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $8.95 | $17.9 | +$8.95 | 58% 51002-37148 (88150) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $0.98 | — | -$0.98 | 46% 7940-9367 (17307) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $1.45 | — | -$1.45 | 52% 90329-84819 (175148) |
Invested
$259.04
Value
—
PnL
-$259.04
Record
57%
70901-53981 (124882)
Invested
$174.46
Value
$85.38
PnL
-$89.07
Record
68%
99525-47913 (147438)
Both legs:
Invested
$103.38
Value
$117.06
PnL
+$13.68
Record
54%
15343-13227 (28570)
Invested
$100.86
Value
$101.88
PnL
+$1.02
Record
93%
23467-1770 (25237)
Invested
$97.66
Value
$99.01
PnL
+$1.35
Record
51%
7596-7161 (14757)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.16
Value
$86.99
PnL
+$27.84
Record
54%
14469-12303 (26772)
Invested
$58.78
Value
$33.03
PnL
+$18.54
Record
64%
23206-12791 (35997)
Invested
$25.8
Value
$20.53
PnL
-$5.27
Record
55%
17781-14392 (32173)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$22.43
Value
$27.06
PnL
+$4.63
Record
63%
51921-30603 (82524)
Invested
$21.79
Value
$20.43
PnL
+$4.15
Record
51%
20077-19224 (39301)
Invested
$15.95
Value
$15.97
PnL
+$0.02
Record
59%
62251-43417 (105668)
Invested
$10.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$9.8
Record
56%
58073-44827 (102900)
Invested
$8.95
Value
$17.9
PnL
+$8.95
Record
58%
51002-37148 (88150)
Invested
$0.98
Value
—
PnL
-$0.98
Record
46%
7940-9367 (17307)
Invested
$1.45
Value
—
PnL
-$1.45
Record
52%
90329-84819 (175148)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
CTRDown — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
Up — $117.06
hoodquant
Up — $101.88
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
Up — $86.99
aaa221
Up — $33.03
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $20.53
UpandDownSyndrome
Up — $27.06
devonpoll
Up — $20.43