Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 83%
1 arb excluded
$3.2K
$144.02
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 69¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$65.11 | 57% 70901-53981 (124882) |
AS aswfadq1555 | Downavg 59.2¢ | $828.94 | $903.53 | +$74.59 | 54% 15343-13227 (28570) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 36.7¢ | $623.43 | $493.97 | -$129.46 | 68% 99525-47913 (147438) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.3¢ | $283.03 | $493.97 | +$210.94 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 36.7¢ | $340.4 | — | -$340.4 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 64.8¢ | $245.73 | $249.99 | +$4.26 | 51% 7596-7161 (14757) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $56.43 | $57 | +$0.57 | 93% 23467-1770 (25237) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 65.6¢ | $66.28 | $37.21 | +$8.8 | 64% 23206-12791 (35997) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 44.9¢ | $27.25 | — | -$27.25 | 55% 17781-14392 (32173) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $33.84 | $47 | +$13.16 | 58% 60547-44207 (104754) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $14.55 | $25.08 | +$10.53 | 74% 102458-36400 (138858) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 87.5¢ | $24.33 | $27.82 | +$3.49 | 63% 51921-30603 (82524) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $11.48 | — | -$11.48 | 62% 43835-26840 (70675) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $5.35 | $5.08 | -$0.27 | 52% 90329-84819 (175148) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $2.5 | $5 | +$2.5 | 55% 50491-41087 (91578) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 53.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20077-19224 (39301) |
Invested
$1,243.35
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$65.11
Record
57%
70901-53981 (124882)
Invested
$828.94
Value
$903.53
PnL
+$74.59
Record
54%
15343-13227 (28570)
Invested
$623.43
Value
$493.97
PnL
-$129.46
Record
68%
99525-47913 (147438)
Both legs:
Invested
$245.73
Value
$249.99
PnL
+$4.26
Record
51%
7596-7161 (14757)
Invested
$56.43
Value
$57
PnL
+$0.57
Record
93%
23467-1770 (25237)
Invested
$66.28
Value
$37.21
PnL
+$8.8
Record
64%
23206-12791 (35997)
Invested
$27.25
Value
—
PnL
-$27.25
Record
55%
17781-14392 (32173)
Invested
$33.84
Value
$47
PnL
+$13.16
Record
58%
60547-44207 (104754)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$14.55
Value
$25.08
PnL
+$10.53
Record
74%
102458-36400 (138858)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$24.33
Value
$27.82
PnL
+$3.49
Record
63%
51921-30603 (82524)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$11.48
Value
—
PnL
-$11.48
Record
62%
43835-26840 (70675)
Invested
$5.35
Value
$5.08
PnL
-$0.27
Record
52%
90329-84819 (175148)
Invested
$2.5
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.5
Record
55%
50491-41087 (91578)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20077-19224 (39301)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
Down — $1.3K
aswfadq1555
Down — $903.53
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $249.99
hoodquant
Down — $57
aaa221
Down — $37.21
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $47
BoneOhio
Down — $25.08
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $27.82