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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Up 53%

Total Value

$360.1

Combined PnL

$16.98

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 15 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders
Total Value$360.1
Total Shares360
Combined PnL+$130.06
Up8 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares307
Combined PnL-$113.08
Down — 47%Up — 53%
AS
aswfadq1555
Down

Invested

$73.72

Value

$168.74

PnL

+$95.02

Record

54%

15329-13213 (28542)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Down

Invested

$54.15

Value

$55

PnL

+$0.85

Record

93%

23399-1767 (25166)

0D
0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$44

Value

—

PnL

-$44

Record

46%

7901-9318 (17219)

PL
ply-pm2<$100
Down

Invested

$35.65

Value

$35

PnL

-$0.65

Record

51%

7530-7094 (14624)

TM
tmsd-testCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$36.4

Value

—

PnL

-$36.4

Record

54%

14463-12299 (26762)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100
Down

Invested

$23.06

Value

$50.13

PnL

+$27.07

Record

56%

58027-44801 (102828)

G-Penis-Monster<$100
Down

Invested

$16.23

Value

$20

PnL

+$3.77

Record

62%

43761-26770 (70531)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100
Down

Invested

$15.58

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$0.32

Record

63%

51856-30563 (82419)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$17.03

Value

—

PnL

-$17.03

Record

58%

60512-44183 (104695)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$11.65

Value

$15.33

PnL

+$3.68

Record

64%

23076-12710 (35786)

DE
devonpollCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$5.15

Value

—

PnL

-$5.15

Record

51%

20058-19208 (39266)

ohioismCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$4.35

Value

—

PnL

-$4.35

Record

64%

40076-22914 (62990)

KA
Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$4.65

Value

—

PnL

-$4.65

Record

55%

17762-14385 (32147)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.45

Value

—

PnL

-$1.45

Record

52%

90236-84735 (174971)

AN
antsaslykuCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

66%

112118-58522 (170640)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x9981876d...197e4a
Slug
eth-updown-15m-1793358000

Traders in this Market

AS

aswfadq1555

Down — $168.74

+$95.02
HO

hoodquant

Down — $55

+$0.85
0D

0x0d2d...7ff5

CTR

Up — $0

-$44
PL

ply-pm2

Down — $35

-$0.65
TM

tmsd-test

CTR

Up — $0

-$36.4
0X

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $50.13

+$27.07

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $20

+$3.77

UpandDownSyndrome

Down — $15.9

+$0.32
0X

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

CTR

Up — $0

-$17.03
AA

aaa221

Down — $15.33

+$3.68
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