Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$404.74
-$60.21
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $159.88 | $161.49 | +$1.61 | 93% 23323-1765 (25088) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 64.1¢ | $87.67 | $85 | -$2.67 | 51% 7486-7050 (14536) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 64.1¢ | $54.45 | $85 | +$30.55 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.5¢ | $33.22 | — | -$33.22 | |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 54.6¢ | $50.41 | $55 | +$4.59 | 54% 15313-13203 (28516) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.1¢ | $41.28 | — | -$41.28 | 46% 7844-9262 (17106) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $49.73 | $40.29 | -$3.78 | 64% 22980-12672 (35652) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 48.9¢ | $19.55 | $40 | +$20.45 | 56% 57982-44777 (102759) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 68.9¢ | $10.36 | $10.23 | -$0.13 | 52% 90179-84671 (174850) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $12.61 | $12.74 | +$0.13 | 63% 51816-30540 (82356) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 27.2¢ | $5.6 | — | -$5.6 | 51% 20036-19191 (39227) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $4.86 | — | -$4.86 | 66% 112081-58477 (170558) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 27.6¢ | $31.33 | — | -$31.33 | 57% 70731-53842 (124573) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 21¢ | — | — | +$0 | 64% 58239-32920 (91159) |
Invested
$159.88
Value
$161.49
PnL
+$1.61
Record
93%
23323-1765 (25088)
Invested
$87.67
Value
$85
PnL
-$2.67
Record
51%
7486-7050 (14536)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.41
Value
$55
PnL
+$4.59
Record
54%
15313-13203 (28516)
Invested
$41.28
Value
—
PnL
-$41.28
Record
46%
7844-9262 (17106)
Invested
$49.73
Value
$40.29
PnL
-$3.78
Record
64%
22980-12672 (35652)
Invested
$19.55
Value
$40
PnL
+$20.45
Record
56%
57982-44777 (102759)
Invested
$10.36
Value
$10.23
PnL
-$0.13
Record
52%
90179-84671 (174850)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$12.61
Value
$12.74
PnL
+$0.13
Record
63%
51816-30540 (82356)
Invested
$5.6
Value
—
PnL
-$5.6
Record
51%
20036-19191 (39227)
Invested
$4.86
Value
—
PnL
-$4.86
Record
66%
112081-58477 (170558)
Invested
$31.33
Value
—
PnL
-$31.33
Record
57%
70731-53842 (124573)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
58239-32920 (91159)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $161.49
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
Down — $55
0x0d2d...7ff5
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $40.29
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $40
dvasdkasodk
Down — $10.23
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $12.74
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
antsaslyku
CTRUp — $0