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DownUpUp
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100DownDownUp
Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
RESOLVED
🏆
Won
Consensus Traders
5
Up 60%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$534.82
Combined PnL
-$27.26
Smart Money Signal
Up
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Up100%
Down0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Up3 traders
Total Value$194.82
Total Shares195
Combined PnL+$0.61
Down2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares65
Combined PnL-$27.88
Up — 60%Down — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $173 | $340 | +$182.62 | 51% 20036-19191 (39227) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 18¢ | $61.2 | $340 | +$351.82 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 47¢ | $169.2 | — | -$169.2 | |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $121.28 | $122.5 | +$1.22 | 93% 23323-1765 (25088) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 52.9¢ | $65.84 | $62.78 | -$3.06 | 51% 7486-7050 (14536) |
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $17 | — | -$17 | 64% 58239-32920 (91159) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Downavg 31.5¢ | $10.88 | — | -$10.88 | 54% 15313-13203 (28516) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 74.3¢ | $7.1 | $9.55 | +$2.45 | 64% 22980-12672 (35652) |
DE
devonpollARB<$100Invested
$173
Value
$340
PnL
+$182.62
Record
51%
20036-19191 (39227)
Both legs:
Up$61.218¢+$351.82
Down$169.247¢-$169.2
HO
hoodquantInvested
$121.28
Value
$122.5
PnL
+$1.22
Record
93%
23323-1765 (25088)
PL
ply-pm2<$100Invested
$65.84
Value
$62.78
PnL
-$3.06
Record
51%
7486-7050 (14536)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$17
Value
—
PnL
-$17
Record
64%
58239-32920 (91159)
AS
aswfadq1555CTR<$100Invested
$10.88
Value
—
PnL
-$10.88
Record
54%
15313-13203 (28516)
AA
aaa221<$100Invested
$7.1
Value
$9.55
PnL
+$2.45
Record
64%
22980-12672 (35652)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x9704e0fd...fa958f
Slug
eth-updown-15m-1793342700