Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Up 57%
1 arb excluded
$613.8
$0.45
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $353.11 | $356.68 | +$3.57 | 93% 23285-1761 (25046) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 58.3¢ | $67.84 | $70 | +$2.15 | 51% 7452-7030 (14482) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 58.3¢ | $40.8 | $70 | +$29.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44¢ | $27.05 | — | -$27.05 | |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $48.02 | $98 | +$49.98 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Downavg 30.2¢ | $27.93 | — | -$27.93 | 54% 15307-13198 (28505) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 54.4¢ | $35.56 | $65.39 | +$29.83 | 56% 57965-44765 (102730) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 50.6¢ | $48.05 | — | -$48.05 | 64% 58208-32895 (91103) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 78.9¢ | $29.28 | $23.73 | -$5.55 | 64% 22926-12644 (35570) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 13¢ | $1.4 | — | -$1.4 | 52% 90141-84640 (174781) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20024-19184 (39208) |
Invested
$353.11
Value
$356.68
PnL
+$3.57
Record
93%
23285-1761 (25046)
Invested
$67.84
Value
$70
PnL
+$2.15
Record
51%
7452-7030 (14482)
Both legs:
Invested
$48.02
Value
$98
PnL
+$49.98
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
Invested
$27.93
Value
—
PnL
-$27.93
Record
54%
15307-13198 (28505)
Invested
$35.56
Value
$65.39
PnL
+$29.83
Record
56%
57965-44765 (102730)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$48.05
Value
—
PnL
-$48.05
Record
64%
58208-32895 (91103)
Invested
$29.28
Value
$23.73
PnL
-$5.55
Record
64%
22926-12644 (35570)
Invested
$1.4
Value
—
PnL
-$1.4
Record
52%
90141-84640 (174781)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20024-19184 (39208)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Up — $356.68
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x0d2d...7ff5
Up — $98
aswfadq1555
CTRDown — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up — $65.39
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
aaa221
Up — $23.73
dvasdkasodk
CTRDown — $0
devonpoll
Up — $0