Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
14
Down 69%
1 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$751
Smart Money Signal
9 of 14 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 80.7¢ | $2.8K | $2.4K | -$395.79 | 54% 15292-13183 (28475) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80.7¢ | $2.2K | — | $-2.2K | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25¢ | $596.8 | $2.4K | +$1.8K | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Downavg 52.6¢ | $426.92 | — | -$372.6 | 64% 58160-32830 (90990) |
PL ply-pm2CTR | Downavg 48.8¢ | $218.43 | — | -$218.43 | 51% 7374-6993 (14367) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $156.53 | $158.11 | +$1.58 | 93% 23201-1758 (24959) |
AA aaa221 | Upavg 45¢ | $149.39 | $57.58 | -$23.85 | 64% 22780-12562 (35342) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.8¢ | $31.62 | — | -$31.62 | — |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $43.57 | — | -$43.57 | 58% 60418-44109 (104527) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 79.2¢ | $39.62 | — | -$39.62 | 64% 39977-22851 (62828) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $13.8 | $15 | +$1.2 | 74% 102400-36373 (138773) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 71.8¢ | $11.75 | — | -$11.75 | 52% 90065-84555 (174620) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $11.01 | — | -$11.01 | 63% 51732-30464 (82196) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $6.28 | — | -$6.28 | 58% 37751-26971 (64722) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $5.01 | $10.01 | +$5.01 | 58% 50945-37076 (88021) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 112022-58386 (170408) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 14.1¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19993-19160 (39153) |
Invested
$2,784.18
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$395.79
Record
54%
15292-13183 (28475)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$426.92
Value
—
PnL
-$372.6
Record
64%
58160-32830 (90990)
Invested
$218.43
Value
—
PnL
-$218.43
Record
51%
7374-6993 (14367)
Invested
$156.53
Value
$158.11
PnL
+$1.58
Record
93%
23201-1758 (24959)
Invested
$149.39
Value
$57.58
PnL
-$23.85
Record
64%
22780-12562 (35342)
Invested
$31.62
Value
—
PnL
-$31.62
Record
—
Invested
$43.57
Value
—
PnL
-$43.57
Record
58%
60418-44109 (104527)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$39.62
Value
—
PnL
-$39.62
Record
64%
39977-22851 (62828)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$13.8
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.2
Record
74%
102400-36373 (138773)
Invested
$11.75
Value
—
PnL
-$11.75
Record
52%
90065-84555 (174620)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$11.01
Value
—
PnL
-$11.01
Record
63%
51732-30464 (82196)
Invested
$6.28
Value
—
PnL
-$6.28
Record
58%
37751-26971 (64722)
Invested
$5.01
Value
$10.01
PnL
+$5.01
Record
58%
50945-37076 (88021)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
112022-58386 (170408)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19993-19160 (39153)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $158.11
aaa221
Up — $57.58
0x0d2d...7ff5
CTRDown — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown — $0
ohioism
CTRDown — $0
BoneOhio
Up — $15
dvasdkasodk
CTRDown — $0