Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
9
Up 63%
1 arb excluded
$767.68
$56.12
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555 | Upavg 66.4Β’ | $291.34 | $341.25 | +$49.91 | 54% 15275-13168 (28443) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 51.8Β’ | $104.75 | $125 | +$29.05 | 64% 57982-32684 (90666) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 51.8Β’ | $64.72 | $125 | +$63.9 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 25.8Β’ | $34.85 | β | -$34.85 | |
PL ply-pm2 | Upavg 77.7Β’ | $108.4 | $106.26 | -$2.14 | 51% 7310-6941 (14251) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.9Β’ | $93.42 | $94.49 | +$1.07 | 93% 23125-1755 (24880) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 66.9Β’ | $41.41 | $50.39 | +$8.98 | 58% 60375-44064 (104439) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 75.8Β’ | $38.12 | $50.29 | +$12.17 | 56% 57842-44686 (102528) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 27Β’ | $1.89 | β | -$1.89 | 52% 89994-84473 (174467) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 41.6Β’ | $32.38 | β | -$10.98 | 64% 22658-12474 (35132) |
![]() UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 4Β’ | $1 | β | -$1 | 63% 51684-30413 (82097) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | β | β | +$0 | 51% 19968-19120 (39088) |
Invested
$291.34
Value
$341.25
PnL
+$49.91
Record
54%
15275-13168 (28443)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$104.75
Value
$125
PnL
+$29.05
Record
64%
57982-32684 (90666)
Both legs:
Invested
$108.4
Value
$106.26
PnL
-$2.14
Record
51%
7310-6941 (14251)
Invested
$93.42
Value
$94.49
PnL
+$1.07
Record
93%
23125-1755 (24880)
Invested
$41.41
Value
$50.39
PnL
+$8.98
Record
58%
60375-44064 (104439)
Invested
$38.12
Value
$50.29
PnL
+$12.17
Record
56%
57842-44686 (102528)
Invested
$1.89
Value
β
PnL
-$1.89
Record
52%
89994-84473 (174467)
Invested
$32.38
Value
β
PnL
-$10.98
Record
64%
22658-12474 (35132)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$1
Value
β
PnL
-$1
Record
63%
51684-30413 (82097)
Invested
β
Value
β
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19968-19120 (39088)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
Up β $341.25

Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage β excluded
ply-pm2
Up β $106.26
hoodquant
Up β $94.49
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up β $50.39
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Up β $50.29
dvasdkasodk
CTRDown β $0
aaa221
CTRDown β $0

UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown β $0
devonpoll
Up β $0