Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Up β but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
10
Up 67%
3 arb excluded
$416.31
-$128.23
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 74.7Β’ | $527.83 | $165.08 | -$362.75 | 57% 70341-53444 (123785) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 74.7Β’ | $432.76 | β | -$432.76 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 57.6Β’ | $95.07 | $165.08 | +$70.01 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 71.3Β’ | $109.14 | $111.88 | +$2.74 | 51% 7184-6826 (14010) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 71.3Β’ | $79.78 | $111.88 | +$32.1 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 26.6Β’ | $29.36 | β | -$29.36 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Upavg 55.1Β’ | $96.84 | $53.77 | -$43.07 | 58% 60288-44012 (104300) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 70.9Β’ | $38.12 | $53.77 | +$15.65 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 55.1Β’ | $58.72 | β | -$58.72 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 62.8Β’ | $72.61 | β | -$72.61 | 56% 57773-44618 (102391) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 44.3Β’ | $28.98 | $51.16 | +$33.95 | 65% 22398-12314 (34712) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 42.3Β’ | $29.15 | β | -$29.15 | 55% 17660-14270 (31930) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.2Β’ | $34.67 | β | -$34.67 | 54% 14435-12266 (26701) |
![]() ohioism<$100 | Downavg 96Β’ | $19.2 | $20 | +$0.8 | 64% 39879-22782 (62661) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 29.4Β’ | $11.34 | β | -$11.34 | 52% 89831-84292 (174123) |
![]() UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 82Β’ | $11.83 | $14.43 | +$2.6 | 63% 51566-30344 (81910) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $10 | β | -$10 | 58% 50888-37027 (87915) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 60.9Β’ | $7.8 | β | -$7.8 | 66% 111875-58207 (170082) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | β | β | +$0 | 51% 19919-19076 (38995) |
Invested
$527.83
Value
$165.08
PnL
-$362.75
Record
57%
70341-53444 (123785)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.14
Value
$111.88
PnL
+$2.74
Record
51%
7184-6826 (14010)
Both legs:
Invested
$96.84
Value
$53.77
PnL
-$43.07
Record
58%
60288-44012 (104300)
Both legs:
Invested
$72.61
Value
β
PnL
-$72.61
Record
56%
57773-44618 (102391)
Invested
$28.98
Value
$51.16
PnL
+$33.95
Record
65%
22398-12314 (34712)
Invested
$29.15
Value
β
PnL
-$29.15
Record
55%
17660-14270 (31930)
Invested
$34.67
Value
β
PnL
-$34.67
Record
54%
14435-12266 (26701)
ohioism<$100Invested
$19.2
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.8
Record
64%
39879-22782 (62661)
Invested
$11.34
Value
β
PnL
-$11.34
Record
52%
89831-84292 (174123)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$11.83
Value
$14.43
PnL
+$2.6
Record
63%
51566-30344 (81910)
Invested
$10
Value
β
PnL
-$10
Record
58%
50888-37027 (87915)
Invested
$7.8
Value
β
PnL
-$7.8
Record
66%
111875-58207 (170082)
Invested
β
Value
β
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19919-19076 (38995)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage β excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
ARBArbitrage β excluded
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp β $0
aaa221
Down β $51.16
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp β $0
tmsd-test
CTRUp β $0

ohioism
Down β $20
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp β $0

UpandDownSyndrome
Down β $14.43