Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Down β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 13% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
π
Won
8
Down 13%
1 arb excluded
$642.95
-$212.63
Smart Money Signal
1 of 8 top traders (13%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Downavg 35.9Β’ | $305.63 | $487.92 | +$201.69 | 54% 14426-12254 (26680) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 33.7Β’ | $122.98 | β | -$122.98 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 35.9Β’ | $175.08 | $487.92 | +$324.67 | |
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99Β’ | $153.48 | $155.03 | +$1.55 | 59% 62091-43202 (105293) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 78.8Β’ | $85 | β | -$66.63 | 65% 22322-12252 (34574) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 67.9Β’ | $41.11 | β | -$41.11 | 56% 57739-44602 (102341) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 80.3Β’ | $34.42 | β | -$34.42 | 52% 89759-84223 (173982) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 70.6Β’ | $35.59 | β | -$35.59 | 58% 60266-43991 (104257) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 32.6Β’ | $9.71 | β | -$9.71 | 66% 111826-58168 (169994) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 48.6Β’ | $10 | β | -$10 | 51% 19894-19056 (38950) |
![]() UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 86.1Β’ | $16.72 | β | -$16.72 | 63% 51515-30317 (81832) |
Invested
$305.63
Value
$487.92
PnL
+$201.69
Record
54%
14426-12254 (26680)
Both legs:
Invested
$153.48
Value
$155.03
PnL
+$1.55
Record
59%
62091-43202 (105293)
Invested
$85
Value
β
PnL
-$66.63
Record
65%
22322-12252 (34574)
Invested
$41.11
Value
β
PnL
-$41.11
Record
56%
57739-44602 (102341)
Invested
$34.42
Value
β
PnL
-$34.42
Record
52%
89759-84223 (173982)
Invested
$35.59
Value
β
PnL
-$35.59
Record
58%
60266-43991 (104257)
Invested
$9.71
Value
β
PnL
-$9.71
Record
66%
111826-58168 (169994)
Invested
$10
Value
β
PnL
-$10
Record
51%
19894-19056 (38950)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$16.72
Value
β
PnL
-$16.72
Record
63%
51515-30317 (81832)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage β excluded
0x50f7
Down β $155.03
aaa221
CTRUp β $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp β $0
dvasdkasodk
CTRUp β $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp β $0
antsaslyku
CTRUp β $0
devonpoll
CTRUp β $0

UpandDownSyndrome
CTRUp β $0