Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Down 63%
2 arb excluded
$619
-$26.61
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $180 | $360 | +$8.3 | 51% 19879-19038 (38917) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $180 | $360 | +$180 | |
| └ Up leg | Up | — | — | -$171.7 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $99 | $100 | +$1 | 93% 22867-1744 (24611) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 58.7¢ | $98.86 | $94 | -$4.86 | 51% 7108-6729 (13837) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.7¢ | $55.22 | $94 | +$38.78 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.9¢ | $43.64 | — | -$43.64 | |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $49.08 | — | -$28.78 | 65% 22160-12167 (34327) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 92.4¢ | $26.26 | $28.43 | +$2.17 | 63% 51474-30294 (81768) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $11.67 | $20.47 | +$8.8 | 54% 14421-12250 (26671) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $8.63 | $11.06 | +$2.43 | 52% 89700-84165 (173865) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Upavg 44.3¢ | $6.65 | — | -$6.65 | 54% 15229-13125 (28354) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $9.15 | $5.05 | -$4.1 | 55% 17546-14181 (31727) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $1.48 | — | -$1.48 | 58% 60246-43973 (104219) |
Invested
$180
Value
$360
PnL
+$8.3
Record
51%
19879-19038 (38917)
Both legs:
Invested
$99
Value
$100
PnL
+$1
Record
93%
22867-1744 (24611)
Invested
$98.86
Value
$94
PnL
-$4.86
Record
51%
7108-6729 (13837)
Both legs:
Invested
$49.08
Value
—
PnL
-$28.78
Record
65%
22160-12167 (34327)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$26.26
Value
$28.43
PnL
+$2.17
Record
63%
51474-30294 (81768)
Invested
$11.67
Value
$20.47
PnL
+$8.8
Record
54%
14421-12250 (26671)
Invested
$8.63
Value
$11.06
PnL
+$2.43
Record
52%
89700-84165 (173865)
Invested
$6.65
Value
—
PnL
-$6.65
Record
54%
15229-13125 (28354)
Invested
$9.15
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$4.1
Record
55%
17546-14181 (31727)
Invested
$1.48
Value
—
PnL
-$1.48
Record
58%
60246-43973 (104219)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $100
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $28.43
tmsd-test
Down — $20.47
dvasdkasodk
Down — $11.06
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $5.05
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0