Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
6
Up 67%
1 arb excluded
$187.67
-$9.28
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 71.2¢ | $102.7 | $102 | -$0.7 | 51% 7002-6680 (13682) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 71.2¢ | $72.6 | $102 | +$29.4 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33¢ | $30.1 | — | -$30.1 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $30 | +$0.3 | 93% 22818-1742 (24560) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 96.6¢ | $29.57 | $30.62 | +$1.05 | 63% 51408-30257 (81665) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 83.6¢ | $36.61 | $15 | +$2.47 | 64% 57804-32541 (90345) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 83.5¢ | $12.95 | $10.06 | -$2.89 | 55% 17472-14100 (31572) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $5.4 | — | -$5.4 | 57% 70079-53264 (123343) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $4.8 | — | -$4.8 | 58% 37494-26736 (64230) |
Invested
$102.7
Value
$102
PnL
-$0.7
Record
51%
7002-6680 (13682)
Both legs:
Invested
$29.7
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.3
Record
93%
22818-1742 (24560)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$29.57
Value
$30.62
PnL
+$1.05
Record
63%
51408-30257 (81665)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$36.61
Value
$15
PnL
+$2.47
Record
64%
57804-32541 (90345)
Invested
$12.95
Value
$10.06
PnL
-$2.89
Record
55%
17472-14100 (31572)
Invested
$5.4
Value
—
PnL
-$5.4
Record
57%
70079-53264 (123343)
Invested
$4.8
Value
—
PnL
-$4.8
Record
58%
37494-26736 (64230)
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