Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (88%) · Down at 100¢ · $151 held · ended Oct 29

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

Total Value

$150.77

Combined PnL

$15.95

Smart Money Entry

75.4¢ → 100¢

+33% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$149.69

Total Shares179

Combined PnL+$16

Up1 trader

Total Value$1.07

Total Shares2

Combined PnL-$0.05

Down — 88%Up — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 92¢	$34.96	$34.39	-$0.57	58% 60194-43949 (104143)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$27.14	$30.51	+$8.58	65% 21975-12079 (34054)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 84.1¢	$80.46	$30	+$9.48	64% 57769-32502 (90271)
AS aswfadq1555<$100	Downavg 90.8¢	$22.15	$19.78	-$2.38	54% 15215-13117 (28332)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 48.3¢	$15.52	$15.91	+$0.4	58% 37465-26708 (64173)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 80.4¢	$13.1	$13.62	+$0.52	51% 6965-6645 (13610)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 91¢	$5.52	$5.49	-$0.03	52% 89581-84030 (173611)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$1.13	$1.07	-$0.05	58% 50830-36973 (87803)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$34.96

Value

$34.39

PnL

-$0.57

Record

58%

60194-43949 (104143)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$27.14

Value

$30.51

PnL

+$8.58

Record

65%

21975-12079 (34054)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$80.46

Value

$30

PnL

+$9.48

Record

64%

57769-32502 (90271)

aswfadq1555<$100

Down

Invested

$22.15

Value

$19.78

PnL

-$2.38

Record

54%

15215-13117 (28332)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$15.52

Value

$15.91

PnL

+$0.4

Record

58%

37465-26708 (64173)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$13.1

Value

$13.62

PnL

+$0.52

Record

51%

6965-6645 (13610)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$5.52

Value

$5.49

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

89581-84030 (173611)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$1.13

Value

$1.07

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

50830-36973 (87803)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.