Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
10
Up 70%
3 arb excluded
$466.73
$57.21
Smart Money Signal
7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 61.2¢ | $116.53 | $122.75 | +$6.22 | 54% 15206-13113 (28319) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61.2¢ | $75.1 | $122.75 | +$47.65 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.4¢ | $41.43 | — | -$41.43 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $111.76 | $111.28 | -$0.48 | 51% 6935-6621 (13556) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 48.2¢ | $53.68 | $111.28 | +$57.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 57.5¢ | $58.08 | — | -$58.08 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 84.6¢ | $89.44 | $79.04 | -$10.4 | 64% 57632-32371 (90003) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.5¢ | $21.74 | $79.04 | +$57.3 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 84.6¢ | $67.7 | — | -$67.7 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 40.4¢ | $32.38 | $54.23 | +$28.12 | 65% 21925-12064 (33989) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 87.1¢ | $25.95 | $29.8 | +$3.85 | 63% 51338-30220 (81558) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 55.4¢ | $14.41 | $26 | +$11.59 | 58% 60182-43943 (104125) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Downavg 26.8¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 54% 14387-12207 (26594) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 20¢ | $4 | $20 | +$16 | 51% 19852-18984 (38836) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $12.69 | $12.82 | +$0.13 | 93% 22744-1740 (24484) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $2.84 | $5.8 | +$2.96 | 58% 50824-36967 (87791) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $5 | +$2.35 | 56% 57656-44547 (102203) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 111604-57865 (169469) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 26¢ | $1.74 | — | -$1.74 | 52% 89542-84009 (173551) |
Invested
$116.53
Value
$122.75
PnL
+$6.22
Record
54%
15206-13113 (28319)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.76
Value
$111.28
PnL
-$0.48
Record
51%
6935-6621 (13556)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$89.44
Value
$79.04
PnL
-$10.4
Record
64%
57632-32371 (90003)
Both legs:
Invested
$32.38
Value
$54.23
PnL
+$28.12
Record
65%
21925-12064 (33989)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$25.95
Value
$29.8
PnL
+$3.85
Record
63%
51338-30220 (81558)
Invested
$14.41
Value
$26
PnL
+$11.59
Record
58%
60182-43943 (104125)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
54%
14387-12207 (26594)
Invested
$4
Value
$20
PnL
+$16
Record
51%
19852-18984 (38836)
Invested
$12.69
Value
$12.82
PnL
+$0.13
Record
93%
22744-1740 (24484)
Invested
$2.84
Value
$5.8
PnL
+$2.96
Record
58%
50824-36967 (87791)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.35
Record
56%
57656-44547 (102203)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
111604-57865 (169469)
Invested
$1.74
Value
—
PnL
-$1.74
Record
52%
89542-84009 (173551)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Up — $54.23
UpandDownSyndrome
Up — $29.8
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $26
tmsd-test
CTRDown — $0
devonpoll
Up — $20
hoodquant
Up — $12.82
PBot-6
Up — $5.8