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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

11

Up 60%

Total Value

$129.86

Combined PnL

-$91.91

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 11 top traders (55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity
Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders
Total Value$129.86
Total Shares130
Combined PnL+$13.54
Up6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares204
Combined PnL-$105.45
Down — 45%Up — 55%
PL
ply-pm2<$100
Down

Invested

$43.85

Value

$42.57

PnL

-$1.28

Record

51%

6912-6596 (13508)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$38.42

Value

—

PnL

-$34.37

Record

64%

57632-32369 (90001)

ohioism<$100
Down

Invested

$29.08

Value

$36

PnL

+$6.92

Record

64%

39757-22720 (62477)

TM
tmsd-testCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$53.64

Value

—

PnL

-$53.64

Record

54%

14375-12192 (26567)

AS
aswfadq1555<$100
Down

Invested

$24.95

Value

$35.39

PnL

+$10.44

Record

54%

15199-13106 (28305)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100
Down

Invested

$15.1

Value

$15.89

PnL

+$0.79

Record

63%

51325-30204 (81529)

DE
devonpollCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$5.6

Value

—

PnL

-$5.6

Record

51%

19837-18971 (38808)

DV
dvasdkasodkCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$5.94

Value

—

PnL

-$5.94

Record

52%

89516-83965 (173481)

PB
PBot-6CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$4.9

Value

—

PnL

-$4.9

Record

58%

50817-36958 (87775)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1

Value

—

PnL

-$1

Record

58%

37423-26662 (64085)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$11.47

Value

$0

PnL

-$3.34

Record

64%

21886-12047 (33933)

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Market Info

Condition ID
0x5596dd9e...43bb68
Slug
eth-updown-15m-1793227500

Traders in this Market

PL

ply-pm2

Down — $42.57

-$1.28

Polkadot-Frog

CTR

Up — $0

-$34.37

ohioism

Down — $36

+$6.92
TM

tmsd-test

CTR

Up — $0

-$53.64
AS

aswfadq1555

Down — $35.39

+$10.44

UpandDownSyndrome

Down — $15.89

+$0.79
DE

devonpoll

CTR

Up — $0

-$5.6
DV

dvasdkasodk

CTR

Up — $0

-$5.94
PB

PBot-6

CTR

Up — $0

-$4.9
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Up — $0

-$1
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