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Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

8

Up 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$556.4

Combined PnL

-$29.16

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$243.6

Total Shares244

Combined PnL+$38.58

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares113

Combined PnL-$67.74

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100	Upavg 64¢	$185.7	$195.23	+$9.54	54% 15186-13093 (28279)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64¢	$124.88	$195.23	+$70.35
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.7¢	$60.82	—	-$60.82
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.9¢	$160.9	$164.39	+$3.49	93% 22640-1735 (24375)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Upavg 54.6¢	$113.94	$117.57	+$3.63	51% 6853-6542 (13395)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.6¢	$64.19	$117.57	+$53.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.6¢	$49.74	—	-$49.74
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 68.3¢	$41.45	—	-$41.45	56% 57606-44494 (102100)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 48¢	$22.58	$47.04	+$24.46	58% 37384-26627 (64011)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 53.3¢	$16.6	—	-$16.6	55% 17309-13927 (31236)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 78.5¢	$15.8	$20.13	+$4.33	51% 19801-18940 (38741)
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Downavg 21.7¢	$7.93	—	-$7.93	54% 14359-12176 (26535)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 64¢	$27.05	$12.05	+$6.3	65% 21769-11955 (33724)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 29¢	$1.75	—	-$1.75	52% 89438-83891 (173329)

aswfadq1555ARB<$100

Invested

$185.7

Value

$195.23

PnL

+$9.54

Record

54%

15186-13093 (28279)

Both legs:

Up$124.8864¢+$70.35

Down$60.8241.7¢-$60.82

Invested

$160.9

Value

$164.39

PnL

+$3.49

Record

93%

22640-1735 (24375)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$113.94

Value

$117.57

PnL

+$3.63

Record

51%

6853-6542 (13395)

Both legs:

Up$64.1954.6¢+$53.37

Down$49.7441.6¢-$49.74

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$41.45

Value

—

PnL

-$41.45

Record

56%

57606-44494 (102100)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$22.58

Value

$47.04

PnL

+$24.46

Record

58%

37384-26627 (64011)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$16.6

Value

—

PnL

-$16.6

Record

55%

17309-13927 (31236)

Invested

$15.8

Value

$20.13

PnL

+$4.33

Record

51%

19801-18940 (38741)

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Invested

$7.93

Value

—

PnL

-$7.93

Record

54%

14359-12176 (26535)

Invested

$27.05

Value

$12.05

PnL

+$6.3

Record

65%

21769-11955 (33724)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.75

Value

—

PnL

-$1.75

Record

52%

89438-83891 (173329)

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x37fd8bc5...3850c7

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1793214000

Traders in this Market

aswfadq1555

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Up — $164.39

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $47.04

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $0

devonpoll

Up — $20.13

tmsd-test

Down — $0

aaa221

Up — $12.05

dvasdkasodk

Down — $0

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