Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
10
Up 80%
6 arb excluded
$3.9K
$559.84
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 69.7Β’ | $1.3K | $1.1K | -$161.29 | 54% 15186-13093 (28279) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 69.7Β’ | $792.46 | $1.1K | +$343.88 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 46Β’ | $505.16 | β | -$505.16 | |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Downavg 32.6Β’ | $1.5K | β | +$46.1 | 54% 14359-12176 (26535) |
UN uninformedfloww | Upavg 60.1Β’ | $983.01 | $1.5K | +$535.14 | 57% 69920-53118 (123038) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 59Β’ | $353.69 | $368.95 | +$15.27 | 51% 6853-6542 (13395) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 59Β’ | $217.65 | $368.95 | +$151.31 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 37.5Β’ | $136.04 | β | -$136.04 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100 | Upavg 62.8Β’ | $330.32 | $383.03 | +$52.71 | 56% 57606-44494 (102100) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 62.8Β’ | $240.57 | $383.03 | +$142.46 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 43.9Β’ | $89.75 | β | -$89.75 | |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Upavg 66.8Β’ | $187.19 | $194.72 | +$7.53 | 58% 60135-43896 (104031) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 66.8Β’ | $130.06 | $194.72 | +$64.65 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 43.9Β’ | $57.12 | β | -$57.12 | |
![]() ohioismARB<$100 | Upavg 62.5Β’ | $150.31 | $142.4 | -$7.91 | 64% 39732-22693 (62425) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 62.5Β’ | $89.05 | $142.4 | +$53.35 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 44.1Β’ | $61.26 | β | -$61.26 | |
![]() BoneOhioARB<$100 | Downavg 41.3Β’ | $92.01 | $48 | -$44.01 | 74% 102149-36316 (138465) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 41.3Β’ | $65.13 | β | -$65.13 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 56Β’ | $26.88 | $48 | +$21.12 | |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 38.2Β’ | $42.96 | β | -$42.96 | 62% 43590-26534 (70124) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 54.3Β’ | $32.15 | $37.41 | +$5.26 | 52% 89438-83891 (173329) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 32.9Β’ | $15.15 | $31.59 | +$16.44 | 55% 17309-13927 (31236) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 99Β’ | $24.75 | $25 | +$0.25 | 58% 37384-26627 (64011) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 58.1Β’ | $60.21 | $20.44 | -$0.87 | 51% 19801-18940 (38741) |
AA aaa221 | Upavg 55.8Β’ | $217.43 | $10 | -$1.79 | 65% 21769-11955 (33724) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99Β’ | $11.12 | $11.23 | +$0.11 | 93% 22640-1735 (24375) |
![]() UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Upavg 69Β’ | $4.83 | $7 | +$2.17 | 63% 51258-30160 (81418) |
Invested
$1,297.62
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$161.29
Record
54%
15186-13093 (28279)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,531.44
Value
β
PnL
+$46.1
Record
54%
14359-12176 (26535)
Invested
$983.01
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$535.14
Record
57%
69920-53118 (123038)
Invested
$353.69
Value
$368.95
PnL
+$15.27
Record
51%
6853-6542 (13395)
Both legs:
Invested
$330.32
Value
$383.03
PnL
+$52.71
Record
56%
57606-44494 (102100)
Both legs:
Invested
$187.19
Value
$194.72
PnL
+$7.53
Record
58%
60135-43896 (104031)
Both legs:
ohioismARB<$100Invested
$150.31
Value
$142.4
PnL
-$7.91
Record
64%
39732-22693 (62425)
Both legs:
BoneOhioARB<$100Invested
$92.01
Value
$48
PnL
-$44.01
Record
74%
102149-36316 (138465)
Both legs:
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$42.96
Value
β
PnL
-$42.96
Record
62%
43590-26534 (70124)
Invested
$32.15
Value
$37.41
PnL
+$5.26
Record
52%
89438-83891 (173329)
Invested
$15.15
Value
$31.59
PnL
+$16.44
Record
55%
17309-13927 (31236)
Invested
$24.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
58%
37384-26627 (64011)
Invested
$60.21
Value
$20.44
PnL
-$0.87
Record
51%
19801-18940 (38741)
Invested
$217.43
Value
$10
PnL
-$1.79
Record
65%
21769-11955 (33724)
Invested
$11.12
Value
$11.23
PnL
+$0.11
Record
93%
22640-1735 (24375)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$4.83
Value
$7
PnL
+$2.17
Record
63%
51258-30160 (81418)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage β excluded
tmsd-test
CTRDown β $0
uninformedfloww
Up β $1.5K
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage β excluded
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
ARBArbitrage β excluded
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
ARBArbitrage β excluded

ohioism
ARBArbitrage β excluded

BoneOhio
ARBArbitrage β excluded

G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown β $0
dvasdkasodk
Up β $37.41