Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 44% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
9
Down 50%
3 arb excluded
$501.79
-$363.39
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 60.6¢ | $194.51 | $149.99 | -$44.52 | 54% 15173-13075 (28248) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.2¢ | $82.84 | $149.99 | +$67.15 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 60.6¢ | $111.68 | — | -$111.68 | |
TM tmsd-testCTR | Downavg 65.4¢ | $228.14 | — | -$228.14 | 54% 14354-12163 (26517) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.1¢ | $106.36 | $108.44 | +$2.08 | 93% 22557-1734 (24291) |
 wowitsamazingCTR | Downavg 51.4¢ | $126.6 | — | -$126.6 | 58% 12495-9150 (21645) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 52.6¢ | $93.75 | $90.46 | -$3.29 | 51% 6782-6478 (13260) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.2¢ | $44.49 | $90.46 | +$45.97 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.6¢ | $49.26 | — | -$49.26 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 59.5¢ | $68.6 | $69.27 | +$0.67 | 55% 17218-13857 (31075) |
AA aaa221ARB<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $66.24 | $60 | -$4.94 | 65% 21630-11888 (33518) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55¢ | $32.97 | $60 | +$27.03 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.6¢ | $30.34 | — | -$31.97 | |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 65.2¢ | $14.21 | $18.64 | +$4.43 | 52% 89352-83806 (173158) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $11.9 | — | -$11.9 | 58% 60103-43871 (103974) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Downavg 48.9¢ | $8.13 | — | -$8.13 | 63% 51186-30116 (81302) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 16¢ | $0.8 | $5 | +$4.2 | 64% 39712-22672 (62384) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19760-18914 (38674) |
Invested
$194.51
Value
$149.99
PnL
-$44.52
Record
54%
15173-13075 (28248)
Both legs:
Invested
$228.14
Value
—
PnL
-$228.14
Record
54%
14354-12163 (26517)
Invested
$106.36
Value
$108.44
PnL
+$2.08
Record
93%
22557-1734 (24291)
wowitsamazingCTRInvested
$126.6
Value
—
PnL
-$126.6
Record
58%
12495-9150 (21645)
Invested
$93.75
Value
$90.46
PnL
-$3.29
Record
51%
6782-6478 (13260)
Both legs:
Invested
$68.6
Value
$69.27
PnL
+$0.67
Record
55%
17218-13857 (31075)
Invested
$66.24
Value
$60
PnL
-$4.94
Record
65%
21630-11888 (33518)
Both legs:
Invested
$14.21
Value
$18.64
PnL
+$4.43
Record
52%
89352-83806 (173158)
Invested
$11.9
Value
—
PnL
-$11.9
Record
58%
60103-43871 (103974)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$8.13
Value
—
PnL
-$8.13
Record
63%
51186-30116 (81302)
ohioism<$100Invested
$0.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$4.2
Record
64%
39712-22672 (62384)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19760-18914 (38674)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
tmsd-test
CTRDown — $0
hoodquant
Up — $108.44
wowitsamazing
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
Up — $69.27
aaa221
ARBArbitrage — excluded
dvasdkasodk
Up — $18.64
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRDown — $0