Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
6
Down 60%
2 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$8.74
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $843.98 | $852.5 | +$8.52 | 93% 22557-1734 (24291) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 21.1¢ | $94.77 | $133.64 | +$38.87 | 54% 15173-13075 (28248) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.3¢ | $43.19 | $133.64 | +$90.45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21.1¢ | $51.58 | — | -$51.58 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 59.5¢ | $81 | $78.75 | -$2.24 | 51% 6782-6478 (13260) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.8¢ | $39.25 | $78.75 | +$39.5 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.5¢ | $41.75 | — | -$41.75 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 83.5¢ | $78.78 | $55.19 | -$6.92 | 65% 21630-11888 (33518) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $18.5 | — | -$18.5 | 57% 69807-53034 (122841) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $16.75 | $25 | +$8.25 | 58% 60103-43871 (103974) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.1 | — | -$0.1 | 66% 111557-57803 (169360) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19760-18914 (38674) |
Invested
$843.98
Value
$852.5
PnL
+$8.52
Record
93%
22557-1734 (24291)
Invested
$94.77
Value
$133.64
PnL
+$38.87
Record
54%
15173-13075 (28248)
Both legs:
Invested
$81
Value
$78.75
PnL
-$2.24
Record
51%
6782-6478 (13260)
Both legs:
Invested
$78.78
Value
$55.19
PnL
-$6.92
Record
65%
21630-11888 (33518)
Invested
$18.5
Value
—
PnL
-$18.5
Record
57%
69807-53034 (122841)
Invested
$16.75
Value
$25
PnL
+$8.25
Record
58%
60103-43871 (103974)
Invested
$0.1
Value
—
PnL
-$0.1
Record
66%
111557-57803 (169360)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19760-18914 (38674)
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