Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 43% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 46%
1 arb excluded
$605.34
-$79.4
Smart Money Signal
6 of 14 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $382.63 | $387 | +$4.37 | 93% 22538-1732 (24270) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Upavg 35.9¢ | $157.21 | $53.93 | -$103.28 | 57% 69767-53019 (122786) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.6¢ | $29.45 | $53.93 | +$24.48 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 35.9¢ | $127.76 | — | -$127.76 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 56.4¢ | $57.68 | $56.26 | -$1.43 | 51% 6762-6452 (13214) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $59.71 | $51.75 | -$4.36 | 65% 21587-11860 (33447) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Upavg 44.9¢ | $52.95 | — | -$52.95 | 54% 15165-13072 (28237) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 63.8¢ | $16.4 | $25.72 | +$9.32 | 55% 17202-13832 (31034) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 83.3¢ | $18.05 | $21.68 | +$3.63 | 63% 51166-30114 (81280) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $11.5 | $9 | -$2.5 | 52% 89316-83776 (173092) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 21.7¢ | $12.5 | — | -$12.5 | 54% 14353-12157 (26510) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $9.3 | — | -$9.3 | 64% 39705-22669 (62374) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 41.7¢ | $12.1 | — | -$12.1 | 58% 60094-43864 (103958) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.1 | — | -$0.1 | 66% 111532-57780 (169312) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $1.13 | — | -$1.13 | 58% 50774-36908 (87682) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $0.35 | — | -$0.35 | 56% 57551-44443 (101994) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19757-18903 (38660) |
Invested
$382.63
Value
$387
PnL
+$4.37
Record
93%
22538-1732 (24270)
Invested
$157.21
Value
$53.93
PnL
-$103.28
Record
57%
69767-53019 (122786)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.68
Value
$56.26
PnL
-$1.43
Record
51%
6762-6452 (13214)
Invested
$59.71
Value
$51.75
PnL
-$4.36
Record
65%
21587-11860 (33447)
Invested
$52.95
Value
—
PnL
-$52.95
Record
54%
15165-13072 (28237)
Invested
$16.4
Value
$25.72
PnL
+$9.32
Record
55%
17202-13832 (31034)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$18.05
Value
$21.68
PnL
+$3.63
Record
63%
51166-30114 (81280)
Invested
$11.5
Value
$9
PnL
-$2.5
Record
52%
89316-83776 (173092)
Invested
$12.5
Value
—
PnL
-$12.5
Record
54%
14353-12157 (26510)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$9.3
Value
—
PnL
-$9.3
Record
64%
39705-22669 (62374)
Invested
$12.1
Value
—
PnL
-$12.1
Record
58%
60094-43864 (103958)
Invested
$0.1
Value
—
PnL
-$0.1
Record
66%
111532-57780 (169312)
Invested
$1.13
Value
—
PnL
-$1.13
Record
58%
50774-36908 (87682)
Invested
$0.35
Value
—
PnL
-$0.35
Record
56%
57551-44443 (101994)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19757-18903 (38660)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $387
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $56.26
aaa221
Down — $51.75
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $25.72
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $21.68
dvasdkasodk
Down — $9
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
ohioism
CTRUp — $0