Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
8
Down 50%
1 arb excluded
$536.67
-$106.82
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TM tmsd-testCTR | Upavg 9.7¢ | $116.06 | — | -$116.06 | 54% 14353-12157 (26510) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 88.4¢ | $390.37 | $436.17 | +$45.8 | 57% 69767-53019 (122786) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 84.5¢ | $56.49 | $60.13 | +$3.64 | 51% 6762-6452 (13214) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 84.5¢ | $50.83 | $60.13 | +$9.3 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 10.3¢ | $5.66 | — | -$5.66 | |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $36.66 | — | -$36.66 | 54% 15165-13072 (28237) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 10.5¢ | $21.7 | — | -$4.5 | 65% 21587-11860 (33447) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 92.6¢ | $25.34 | $27.36 | +$2.02 | 63% 51166-30114 (81280) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 5.7¢ | $2.4 | — | +$0 | 51% 19757-18903 (38660) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 78.3¢ | $8.97 | $11.45 | +$2.48 | 52% 89316-83776 (173092) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $1.46 | $1.55 | +$0.09 | 56% 57551-44443 (101994) |
Invested
$116.06
Value
—
PnL
-$116.06
Record
54%
14353-12157 (26510)
Invested
$390.37
Value
$436.17
PnL
+$45.8
Record
57%
69767-53019 (122786)
Invested
$56.49
Value
$60.13
PnL
+$3.64
Record
51%
6762-6452 (13214)
Both legs:
Invested
$36.66
Value
—
PnL
-$36.66
Record
54%
15165-13072 (28237)
Invested
$21.7
Value
—
PnL
-$4.5
Record
65%
21587-11860 (33447)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$25.34
Value
$27.36
PnL
+$2.02
Record
63%
51166-30114 (81280)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19757-18903 (38660)
Invested
$8.97
Value
$11.45
PnL
+$2.48
Record
52%
89316-83776 (173092)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$0.09
Record
56%
57551-44443 (101994)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $436.17
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $27.36
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
dvasdkasodk
Down — $11.45
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $1.55