Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 55%
1 arb excluded
$1.6K
$15.07
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13.82 | 93% 22517-1732 (24249) |
TM tmsd-testARB<$100 | Downavg 82.6¢ | $94.4 | $90 | -$4.4 | 54% 14345-12152 (26497) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 82.6¢ | $74.3 | $90 | +$15.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 23.4¢ | $20.1 | — | -$20.1 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 67.6¢ | $87 | $82.23 | -$4.77 | 51% 6745-6431 (13176) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $2.03 | — | -$2.03 | 58% 60083-43855 (103938) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $36.8 | $52.68 | +$15.88 | 65% 21538-11836 (33374) |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 61.3¢ | $26.05 | $30 | +$3.95 | 54% 15162-13063 (28225) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $1.01 | — | -$1.01 | 62% 43568-26495 (70063) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $17.6 | $20 | +$2.4 | 57% 69712-52987 (122699) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 81.4¢ | $12.04 | $14.79 | +$2.75 | 63% 51142-30102 (81244) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $14.2 | — | -$12.15 | 51% 19747-18896 (38643) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $2.32 | — | -$2.32 | 52% 89283-83737 (173020) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $1.45 | — | -$1.45 | 55% 17200-13832 (31032) |
Invested
$1,297.78
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.82
Record
93%
22517-1732 (24249)
Invested
$94.4
Value
$90
PnL
-$4.4
Record
54%
14345-12152 (26497)
Both legs:
Invested
$87
Value
$82.23
PnL
-$4.77
Record
51%
6745-6431 (13176)
Invested
$2.03
Value
—
PnL
-$2.03
Record
58%
60083-43855 (103938)
Invested
$36.8
Value
$52.68
PnL
+$15.88
Record
65%
21538-11836 (33374)
Invested
$26.05
Value
$30
PnL
+$3.95
Record
54%
15162-13063 (28225)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.01
Value
—
PnL
-$1.01
Record
62%
43568-26495 (70063)
Invested
$17.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.4
Record
57%
69712-52987 (122699)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$12.04
Value
$14.79
PnL
+$2.75
Record
63%
51142-30102 (81244)
Invested
$14.2
Value
—
PnL
-$12.15
Record
51%
19747-18896 (38643)
Invested
$2.32
Value
—
PnL
-$2.32
Record
52%
89283-83737 (173020)
Invested
$1.45
Value
—
PnL
-$1.45
Record
55%
17200-13832 (31032)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $1.3K
tmsd-test
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Down — $82.23
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
Down — $52.68
aswfadq1555
Down — $30
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $20
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $14.79
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0