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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 25%

Total Value

$276.21

Combined PnL

-$881.87

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 9 top traders (33%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,344

Combined PnL-$964.05

Down6 traders

Total Value$276.21

Total Shares276

Combined PnL+$82.18

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TM tmsd-testCTR	Upavg 40.6¢	$927.61	—	-$927.61	54% 14332-12131 (26463)
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 69.7¢	$133.03	$190.88	+$57.85	57% 69319-52768 (122087)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 41.9¢	$36.44	—	-$36.44	65% 21160-11608 (32768)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 63¢	$31.61	$50.18	+$18.57	58% 60038-43826 (103864)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 87.1¢	$14.94	$17.16	+$2.22	63% 50924-30036 (80960)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 92¢	$7.57	$6	-$1.57	52% 89153-83609 (172762)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 49¢	$4.9	$9.99	+$5.1	58% 50724-36860 (87584)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$1.98	$2	+$0.02	93% 22430-1725 (24155)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 28.5¢	—	—	+$0	51% 19712-18874 (38586)

Invested

$927.61

Value

—

PnL

-$927.61

Record

54%

14332-12131 (26463)

uninformedfloww

Invested

$133.03

Value

$190.88

PnL

+$57.85

Record

57%

69319-52768 (122087)

Invested

$36.44

Value

—

PnL

-$36.44

Record

65%

21160-11608 (32768)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$31.61

Value

$50.18

PnL

+$18.57

Record

58%

60038-43826 (103864)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$14.94

Value

$17.16

PnL

+$2.22

Record

63%

50924-30036 (80960)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$7.57

Value

$6

PnL

-$1.57

Record

52%

89153-83609 (172762)

Invested

$4.9

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$5.1

Record

58%

50724-36860 (87584)

Invested

$1.98

Value

$2

PnL

+$0.02

Record

93%

22430-1725 (24155)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

19712-18874 (38586)

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 9 top traders (33%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbd846b0e...1a14ce

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1793163600

Traders in this Market

tmsd-test

Up — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $190.88

aaa221

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down — $50.18

UpandDownSyndrome

Down — $17.16

dvasdkasodk

Down — $6

PBot-6

Down — $9.99

hoodquant

Down — $2

devonpoll

Up — $0

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