Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Down 71%
1 arb excluded
$199.57
-$24.36
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AA aaa221ARB<$100 | Downavg 88.9¢ | $107.71 | $59.1 | -$29.9 | 65% 21160-11608 (32768) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 88.9¢ | $52.53 | $59.1 | +$7.97 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.1¢ | $23.41 | — | -$37.87 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98.9¢ | $89.01 | $90 | +$0.99 | 93% 22430-1725 (24155) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 67.8¢ | $24.76 | — | -$24.76 | 57% 69319-52768 (122087) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 94.5¢ | $33.52 | $35.47 | +$1.95 | 63% 50924-30036 (80960) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $7.36 | $5 | -$2.36 | 52% 89153-83609 (172762) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 16.5¢ | $6.58 | — | -$4.78 | 51% 19712-18874 (38586) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $1.6 | $5 | +$3.4 | 64% 39652-22624 (62276) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $5 | +$1.2 | 56% 57485-44407 (101892) |
Invested
$107.71
Value
$59.1
PnL
-$29.9
Record
65%
21160-11608 (32768)
Both legs:
Invested
$89.01
Value
$90
PnL
+$0.99
Record
93%
22430-1725 (24155)
Invested
$24.76
Value
—
PnL
-$24.76
Record
57%
69319-52768 (122087)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$33.52
Value
$35.47
PnL
+$1.95
Record
63%
50924-30036 (80960)
Invested
$7.36
Value
$5
PnL
-$2.36
Record
52%
89153-83609 (172762)
Invested
$6.58
Value
—
PnL
-$4.78
Record
51%
19712-18874 (38586)
ohioism<$100Invested
$1.6
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.4
Record
64%
39652-22624 (62276)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.2
Record
56%
57485-44407 (101892)
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