Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
6
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$88.89
-$7.65
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 58.6¢ | $50.37 | $49.34 | -$1.03 | 51% 6607-6303 (12910) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.6¢ | $28.9 | $49.34 | +$20.44 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $21.47 | — | -$21.47 | |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 98.3¢ | $17.7 | $18 | +$0.3 | 63% 50900-30030 (80930) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 45.1¢ | $12.71 | — | -$12.71 | 68% 98660-46970 (145630) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 85.5¢ | $10.55 | $11.17 | +$0.62 | 52% 89117-83588 (172705) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $3.72 | $5.24 | +$1.52 | 65% 21119-11585 (32704) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $2.46 | $5.13 | +$2.67 | 54% 14330-12129 (26459) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 66% 111385-57646 (169031) |
Invested
$50.37
Value
$49.34
PnL
-$1.03
Record
51%
6607-6303 (12910)
Both legs:
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$17.7
Value
$18
PnL
+$0.3
Record
63%
50900-30030 (80930)
Invested
$12.71
Value
—
PnL
-$12.71
Record
68%
98660-46970 (145630)
Invested
$10.55
Value
$11.17
PnL
+$0.62
Record
52%
89117-83588 (172705)
Invested
$3.72
Value
$5.24
PnL
+$1.52
Record
65%
21119-11585 (32704)
Invested
$2.46
Value
$5.13
PnL
+$2.67
Record
54%
14330-12129 (26459)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
66%
111385-57646 (169031)
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