Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
13
Up 83%
2 arb excluded
$232.31
-$582.55
Smart Money Signal
11 of 13 top traders (85%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 97.9¢ | $371.05 | — | -$371.05 | 57% 69304-52749 (122053) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $108.46 | $107.31 | -$1.16 | 51% 6588-6273 (12861) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 32.3¢ | $34.62 | $107.31 | +$72.68 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 61¢ | $73.84 | — | -$73.84 | |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Upavg 76.7¢ | $95.36 | $90 | -$5.36 | 54% 15135-13044 (28179) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76.7¢ | $70.71 | — | -$70.71 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 27.4¢ | $24.65 | $90 | +$65.35 | |
AL almachCTR<$100 | Upavg 81.7¢ | $34.33 | — | -$34.33 | 55% 47865-39475 (87340) |
BO bosonaCTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $21.55 | — | -$21.55 | 56% 49132-39393 (88525) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 75.6¢ | $72.97 | — | -$51.01 | 65% 21073-11552 (32625) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $41.59 | $30 | -$11.59 | 58% 60017-43815 (103832) |
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $22.65 | — | -$22.65 | 54% 14325-12121 (26446) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $16.4 | — | -$16.4 | 51% 19701-18860 (38561) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $13.35 | — | -$13.35 | 62% 43532-26459 (69991) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 83.8¢ | $12.17 | — | -$12.17 | 52% 89083-83565 (172648) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $16.39 | — | -$17.72 | 74% 102029-36289 (138318) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $4.05 | $5 | +$0.95 | 64% 39631-22613 (62244) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $11.68 | — | -$11.68 | 63% 50863-30019 (80882) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | — | — | +$0 | 68% 98655-46969 (145624) |
Invested
$371.05
Value
—
PnL
-$371.05
Record
57%
69304-52749 (122053)
Invested
$108.46
Value
$107.31
PnL
-$1.16
Record
51%
6588-6273 (12861)
Both legs:
Invested
$95.36
Value
$90
PnL
-$5.36
Record
54%
15135-13044 (28179)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.33
Value
—
PnL
-$34.33
Record
55%
47865-39475 (87340)
Invested
$21.55
Value
—
PnL
-$21.55
Record
56%
49132-39393 (88525)
Invested
$72.97
Value
—
PnL
-$51.01
Record
65%
21073-11552 (32625)
Invested
$41.59
Value
$30
PnL
-$11.59
Record
58%
60017-43815 (103832)
Invested
$22.65
Value
—
PnL
-$22.65
Record
54%
14325-12121 (26446)
Invested
$16.4
Value
—
PnL
-$16.4
Record
51%
19701-18860 (38561)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$13.35
Value
—
PnL
-$13.35
Record
62%
43532-26459 (69991)
Invested
$12.17
Value
—
PnL
-$12.17
Record
52%
89083-83565 (172648)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$16.39
Value
—
PnL
-$17.72
Record
74%
102029-36289 (138318)
ohioism<$100Invested
$4.05
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.95
Record
64%
39631-22613 (62244)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$11.68
Value
—
PnL
-$11.68
Record
63%
50863-30019 (80882)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
68%
98655-46969 (145624)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
almach
CTRUp — $0
bosona
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $30
tmsd-test
CTRUp — $0
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0