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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

9

Up 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$83.29

Combined PnL

-$185.02

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares378

Combined PnL-$191.15

Down2 traders

Total Value$23.83

Total Shares24

Combined PnL+$6.13

Up — 78%Down — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 52.6¢	$63.6	—	-$63.6	58% 12461-9128 (21589)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Upavg 50.6¢	$60.29	$59.46	-$0.83	51% 6539-6233 (12772)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$31.07	—	-$31.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.1¢	$29.22	$59.46	+$30.24
TM tmsd-testCTR<$100	Upavg 23¢	$32.62	—	-$32.62	54% 14311-12101 (26412)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 57¢	$28.72	—	-$28.72	58% 59994-43795 (103789)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$27.66	—	-$27.66	56% 57437-44370 (101807)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 53.4¢	$31.03	—	-$25.6	65% 20975-11511 (32486)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 80.7¢	$15.2	$18.83	+$3.63	63% 50818-30002 (80820)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 57¢	$2.85	—	-$2.85	58% 37338-26566 (63904)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 50¢	$2.5	$5	+$2.5	64% 39618-22602 (62220)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 61¢	$14.6	—	-$10.1	51% 19680-18843 (38523)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$63.6

Value

—

PnL

-$63.6

Record

58%

12461-9128 (21589)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$60.29

Value

$59.46

PnL

-$0.83

Record

51%

6539-6233 (12772)

Both legs:

Up$31.0750.6¢-$31.07

Down$29.2249.1¢+$30.24

tmsd-testCTR<$100

Invested

$32.62

Value

—

PnL

-$32.62

Record

54%

14311-12101 (26412)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$28.72

Value

—

PnL

-$28.72

Record

58%

59994-43795 (103789)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$27.66

Value

—

PnL

-$27.66

Record

56%

57437-44370 (101807)

Invested

$31.03

Value

—

PnL

-$25.6

Record

65%

20975-11511 (32486)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$15.2

Value

$18.83

PnL

+$3.63

Record

63%

50818-30002 (80820)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

—

PnL

-$2.85

Record

58%

37338-26566 (63904)

Invested

$2.5

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

39618-22602 (62220)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$14.6

Value

—

PnL

-$10.1

Record

51%

19680-18843 (38523)

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5a18f2c4...d6a347

Slug

eth-updown-15m-1793144700

Traders in this Market

wowitsamazing

Up — $0

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

tmsd-test

Up — $0

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $0

aaa221

Up — $0

UpandDownSyndrome

Down — $18.83

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

ohioism

Down — $5

devonpoll

Up — $0

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