Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 58%
1 arb excluded
$600.23
$35.81
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 67.6¢ | $162.94 | $209.38 | +$46.44 | 54% 14311-12101 (26412) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 52.7¢ | $82.67 | $99 | +$16.33 | 64% 57400-32165 (89565) |
 wowitsamazing | Downavg 63.7¢ | $75.6 | $118.72 | +$43.12 | 58% 12461-9128 (21589) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 67.5¢ | $77.57 | $73 | -$4.57 | 51% 6539-6233 (12772) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 67.5¢ | $49.3 | $73 | +$23.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 37.7¢ | $28.27 | — | -$28.27 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 49.3¢ | $45.83 | — | -$45.83 | 58% 37338-26566 (63904) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $46.6 | $47.07 | +$0.47 | 93% 22338-1719 (24057) |
 UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100 | Upavg 30¢ | $25.97 | — | -$25.97 | 63% 50818-30002 (80820) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $16.6 | $20 | +$3.4 | 58% 59994-43795 (103789) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $10.02 | $20.03 | +$10.02 | 58% 50695-36819 (87514) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 77.9¢ | $33.72 | $13.03 | +$2.43 | 65% 20975-11511 (32486) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 52.5¢ | $11.4 | — | -$11.4 | 51% 19680-18843 (38523) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Upavg 11¢ | $0.55 | — | -$0.55 | 54% 15126-13034 (28160) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $2.65 | — | -$2.65 | 52% 89030-83502 (172532) |
Invested
$162.94
Value
$209.38
PnL
+$46.44
Record
54%
14311-12101 (26412)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$82.67
Value
$99
PnL
+$16.33
Record
64%
57400-32165 (89565)
wowitsamazingInvested
$75.6
Value
$118.72
PnL
+$43.12
Record
58%
12461-9128 (21589)
Invested
$77.57
Value
$73
PnL
-$4.57
Record
51%
6539-6233 (12772)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.83
Value
—
PnL
-$45.83
Record
58%
37338-26566 (63904)
Invested
$46.6
Value
$47.07
PnL
+$0.47
Record
93%
22338-1719 (24057)
UpandDownSyndromeCTR<$100Invested
$25.97
Value
—
PnL
-$25.97
Record
63%
50818-30002 (80820)
Invested
$16.6
Value
$20
PnL
+$3.4
Record
58%
59994-43795 (103789)
Invested
$10.02
Value
$20.03
PnL
+$10.02
Record
58%
50695-36819 (87514)
Invested
$33.72
Value
$13.03
PnL
+$2.43
Record
65%
20975-11511 (32486)
Invested
$11.4
Value
—
PnL
-$11.4
Record
51%
19680-18843 (38523)
Invested
$0.55
Value
—
PnL
-$0.55
Record
54%
15126-13034 (28160)
Invested
$2.65
Value
—
PnL
-$2.65
Record
52%
89030-83502 (172532)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
tmsd-test
Down — $209.38
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $99
wowitsamazing
Down — $118.72
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $47.07
UpandDownSyndrome
CTRUp — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $20
PBot-6
Down — $20.03
aaa221
Down — $13.03