Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
13
Down 69%
1 arb excluded
$614.97
-$39.56
Smart Money Signal
9 of 13 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TM tmsd-test | Downavg 77.4¢ | $224.2 | $208.53 | -$15.67 | 54% 14294-12088 (26382) |
AS aswfadq1555ARB<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $200.5 | $155.6 | -$44.9 | 54% 15110-13017 (28127) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69¢ | $107.37 | $155.6 | +$48.23 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 27.6¢ | $93.13 | — | -$93.13 | |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 84.8¢ | $73.7 | $60 | -$13.7 | 64% 57344-32114 (89458) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 68.1¢ | $54.88 | $55.42 | +$0.54 | 51% 6457-6156 (12613) |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 76.6¢ | $45.58 | $41.46 | -$4.12 | 57% 69092-52584 (121676) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 68.6¢ | $35.52 | $49.5 | +$13.98 | 65% 20812-11390 (32202) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $19.8 | $20 | +$0.2 | 93% 22269-1715 (23984) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $11.18 | — | -$11.18 | 56% 57395-44340 (101735) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $11.18 | $13.47 | +$2.29 | 63% 50719-29966 (80685) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $12.56 | — | -$8.86 | 51% 19648-18799 (38447) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $5.52 | $6 | +$0.48 | 58% 59958-43771 (103729) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $4.65 | $5 | +$0.35 | 62% 43491-26415 (69906) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.95 | — | -$1.95 | 58% 50666-36801 (87467) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $1.92 | — | -$1.92 | 52% 88930-83410 (172340) |
Invested
$224.2
Value
$208.53
PnL
-$15.67
Record
54%
14294-12088 (26382)
Invested
$200.5
Value
$155.6
PnL
-$44.9
Record
54%
15110-13017 (28127)
Both legs:
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$73.7
Value
$60
PnL
-$13.7
Record
64%
57344-32114 (89458)
Invested
$54.88
Value
$55.42
PnL
+$0.54
Record
51%
6457-6156 (12613)
Invested
$45.58
Value
$41.46
PnL
-$4.12
Record
57%
69092-52584 (121676)
Invested
$35.52
Value
$49.5
PnL
+$13.98
Record
65%
20812-11390 (32202)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$0.2
Record
93%
22269-1715 (23984)
Invested
$11.18
Value
—
PnL
-$11.18
Record
56%
57395-44340 (101735)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$11.18
Value
$13.47
PnL
+$2.29
Record
63%
50719-29966 (80685)
Invested
$12.56
Value
—
PnL
-$8.86
Record
51%
19648-18799 (38447)
Invested
$5.52
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.48
Record
58%
59958-43771 (103729)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$4.65
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.35
Record
62%
43491-26415 (69906)
Invested
$1.95
Value
—
PnL
-$1.95
Record
58%
50666-36801 (87467)
Invested
$1.92
Value
—
PnL
-$1.92
Record
52%
88930-83410 (172340)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
tmsd-test
Down — $208.53
aswfadq1555
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $60
ply-pm2
Down — $55.42
uninformedfloww
Down — $41.46
aaa221
Down — $49.5
hoodquant
Down — $20
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $13.47
devonpoll
CTRUp — $0