Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
9
Down 56%
1 arb excluded
$188.52
-$37.89
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 51.1¢ | $57.4 | $67.5 | +$10.1 | 64% 57270-32043 (89313) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.1¢ | $34.5 | $67.5 | +$33 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 34.3¢ | $22.9 | — | -$22.9 | |
AS aswfadq1555<$100 | Downavg 49.6¢ | $37.44 | $53.69 | +$16.25 | 54% 15103-13012 (28115) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 64.4¢ | $41.06 | $42 | +$0.94 | 51% 6435-6131 (12566) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.7¢ | $28.82 | — | -$28.82 | 57% 69047-52548 (121595) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $13.71 | $14.13 | +$0.42 | 63% 50706-29951 (80657) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.4¢ | $11.89 | — | -$11.89 | 74% 101953-36265 (138218) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 43¢ | $8.6 | — | -$8.6 | 51% 19623-18797 (38420) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $6.07 | — | -$6.07 | 64% 39585-22576 (62161) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $5.94 | $6 | +$0.06 | 93% 22237-1714 (23951) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $9.91 | $5.2 | -$0.18 | 65% 20770-11363 (32133) |
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$57.4
Value
$67.5
PnL
+$10.1
Record
64%
57270-32043 (89313)
Both legs:
Invested
$37.44
Value
$53.69
PnL
+$16.25
Record
54%
15103-13012 (28115)
Invested
$41.06
Value
$42
PnL
+$0.94
Record
51%
6435-6131 (12566)
Invested
$28.82
Value
—
PnL
-$28.82
Record
57%
69047-52548 (121595)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$13.71
Value
$14.13
PnL
+$0.42
Record
63%
50706-29951 (80657)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$11.89
Value
—
PnL
-$11.89
Record
74%
101953-36265 (138218)
Invested
$8.6
Value
—
PnL
-$8.6
Record
51%
19623-18797 (38420)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$6.07
Value
—
PnL
-$6.07
Record
64%
39585-22576 (62161)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.06
Record
93%
22237-1714 (23951)
Invested
$9.91
Value
$5.2
PnL
-$0.18
Record
65%
20770-11363 (32133)
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