Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 70%
1 arb excluded
$804.35
-$104.66
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 67¢ | $699.64 | $602.32 | -$97.32 | 68% 98347-46616 (144963) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 62.9¢ | $90.98 | $86.56 | -$4.43 | 51% 6312-5995 (12307) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.9¢ | $54.42 | $86.56 | +$32.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 44.4¢ | $36.57 | — | -$36.57 | |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 90¢ | $45.07 | $50.08 | +$5.01 | 56% 57299-44283 (101582) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $13.05 | — | -$13.05 | 62% 43445-26347 (69792) |
AS aswfadq1555CTR<$100 | Upavg 30.7¢ | $20.02 | — | -$20.02 | 54% 15073-12979 (28052) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 88.5¢ | $13.87 | $15.67 | +$1.8 | 63% 50564-29870 (80434) |
TM tmsd-test<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $9.3 | $30 | +$20.7 | 54% 14280-12067 (26347) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 55.4¢ | $8.1 | $11.56 | +$3.46 | 52% 88749-83182 (171931) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $4.7 | $5 | +$0.3 | 55% 16996-13641 (30637) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $3.11 | $3.17 | +$0.06 | 65% 20472-11181 (31653) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 70¢ | $5.6 | — | -$5.6 | 58% 59890-43717 (103607) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19546-18734 (38280) |
Invested
$699.64
Value
$602.32
PnL
-$97.32
Record
68%
98347-46616 (144963)
Invested
$90.98
Value
$86.56
PnL
-$4.43
Record
51%
6312-5995 (12307)
Both legs:
Invested
$45.07
Value
$50.08
PnL
+$5.01
Record
56%
57299-44283 (101582)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$13.05
Value
—
PnL
-$13.05
Record
62%
43445-26347 (69792)
Invested
$20.02
Value
—
PnL
-$20.02
Record
54%
15073-12979 (28052)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$13.87
Value
$15.67
PnL
+$1.8
Record
63%
50564-29870 (80434)
Invested
$9.3
Value
$30
PnL
+$20.7
Record
54%
14280-12067 (26347)
Invested
$8.1
Value
$11.56
PnL
+$3.46
Record
52%
88749-83182 (171931)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
55%
16996-13641 (30637)
Invested
$3.11
Value
$3.17
PnL
+$0.06
Record
65%
20472-11181 (31653)
Invested
$5.6
Value
—
PnL
-$5.6
Record
58%
59890-43717 (103607)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19546-18734 (38280)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Down — $602.32
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $50.08
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0
aswfadq1555
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $15.67
tmsd-test
Down — $30
dvasdkasodk
Down — $11.56
Kathod-Shi-14
Down — $5
aaa221
Down — $3.17