Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Parnu JK Vaprus win on 2026-10-28?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$1.1K
-$18.83
64.5¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 57.6¢ | $420.1 | $502.48 | +$82.38 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 69¢ | $323.61 | $337.68 | +$14.07 | 50% 32772-32330 (65102) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 57¢ | $286.32 | $197.29 | -$48.2 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $47.32 | $47.28 | -$0.04 | 50% 12109-12317 (24426) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 67.4¢ | $105.53 | $38.35 | -$67.19 | 50% 24366-23976 (48342) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $4.85 | $5 | +$0.15 | 54% 6046-5125 (11171) |
Invested
$420.1
Value
$502.48
PnL
+$82.38
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
Invested
$323.61
Value
$337.68
PnL
+$14.07
Record
50%
32772-32330 (65102)
VeryLucky888Invested
$286.32
Value
$197.29
PnL
-$48.2
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$47.32
Value
$47.28
PnL
-$0.04
Record
50%
12109-12317 (24426)
Invested
$105.53
Value
$38.35
PnL
-$67.19
Record
50%
24366-23976 (48342)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
54%
6046-5125 (11171)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.