Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold FC Nomme United, while the market favors FCI Levadia Tallinn (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: FCI Levadia Tallinn (-2.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold FC Nomme United (40%) · FC Nomme United at 50¢ · $494 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
FC Nomme United
5
FC Nomme United 40%
$494.39
$25.92
69.6¢ → 50¢
-28% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFC Nomme United at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors FCI Levadia Tallinn 50%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | FC Nomme Unitedavg 69.7¢ | $366.04 | $362.42 | -$3.62 | 50% 25095-24835 (49930) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | FCI Levadia Tallinnavg 29¢ | $50.46 | $85.26 | +$34.8 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | FC Nomme Unitedavg 69¢ | $40.57 | $29.99 | -$10.58 | 49% 19156-19549 (38705) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | FCI Levadia Tallinnavg 29.2¢ | $7.88 | $13.23 | +$5.35 | 59% 45810-32163 (77973) |
 HRTrading<$100 | FCI Levadia Tallinnavg 31.3¢ | $3.53 | $3.5 | -$0.03 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
Invested
$366.04
Value
$362.42
PnL
-$3.62
Record
50%
25095-24835 (49930)
Invested
$50.46
Value
$85.26
PnL
+$34.8
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Invested
$40.57
Value
$29.99
PnL
-$10.58
Record
49%
19156-19549 (38705)
Invested
$7.88
Value
$13.23
PnL
+$5.35
Record
59%
45810-32163 (77973)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.53
Value
$3.5
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.