Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold FC Nomme United, while the market favors FCI Levadia Tallinn (62%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: FCI Levadia Tallinn (-1.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold FC Nomme United (67%) · FC Nomme United at 38¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
FC Nomme United
3
FC Nomme United 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$8.05
48.5¢ → 38¢
-22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFC Nomme United at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors FCI Levadia Tallinn 62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | FCI Levadia Tallinnavg 70.6¢ | $1.3K | $965.24 | -$311.66 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
| └ FCI Levadia Tallinn leg | FCI Levadia Tallinnavg 70.6¢ | $678.94 | $596.09 | -$82.85 | |
| └ FC Nomme United leg | FC Nomme Unitedavg 61.6¢ | $597.96 | $369.14 | -$228.82 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | FC Nomme Unitedavg 54.2¢ | $168 | $152 | -$16 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | FC Nomme Unitedavg 35.5¢ | $80.02 | $85.2 | +$5.18 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
 HRTrading<$100 | FCI Levadia Tallinnavg 39.1¢ | $7.46 | $10.23 | +$2.77 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
Invested
$1,276.9
Value
$965.24
PnL
-$311.66
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$168
Value
$152
PnL
-$16
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
Invested
$80.02
Value
$85.2
PnL
+$5.18
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.46
Value
$10.23
PnL
+$2.77
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.