Will FC Nomme United win on 2026-10-27?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 52¢ · $773 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$773.19
$21.76
47.5¢ → 52¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 46.7¢ | $438.44 | $460.46 | +$22.02 | 50% 24110-23737 (47847) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.7¢ | $304.55 | $339.22 | +$34.67 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53¢ | $133.89 | $121.24 | -$12.65 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 47.8¢ | $277.02 | $297.36 | +$20.33 | 59% 44263-30624 (74887) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 34.9¢ | $6.85 | $7.77 | +$0.92 | 54% 2570-2206 (4776) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 46.5¢ | $7.1 | $7.6 | +$0.5 | 54% 6000-5088 (11088) |
Invested
$438.44
Value
$460.46
PnL
+$22.02
Record
50%
24110-23737 (47847)
Both legs:
Invested
$277.02
Value
$297.36
PnL
+$20.33
Record
59%
44263-30624 (74887)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.85
Value
$7.77
PnL
+$0.92
Record
54%
2570-2206 (4776)
Invested
$7.1
Value
$7.6
PnL
+$0.5
Record
54%
6000-5088 (11088)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.