Will JK Narva Trans win on 2026-10-27?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 94¢ · $894 held · ended Oct 27

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$893.94

Combined PnL

$103.28

Smart Money Entry

77.7¢ → 94¢

+21% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$836.73

Total Shares898

Combined PnL+$125.84

Yes3 traders

Total Value$57.2

Total Shares295

Combined PnL-$22.57

No — 57%Yes — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 77.9¢	$676.26	$801.02	+$124.76	50% 24110-23737 (47847)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.6¢	$39.08	$41.61	+$2.53	59% 44263-30624 (74887)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 73.9¢	$13.66	$17.18	+$3.53	58% 40396-29173 (69569)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$37.24	$11.85	-$25.39	50% 32583-32122 (64705)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 73.8¢	$11.33	$11.2	-$3.37	54% 2570-2206 (4776)
BA Bayupati<$100	Noavg 65¢	$6.39	$7.32	+$0.93	50% 182-179 (361)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$3.45	$3.75	+$0.3	54% 6000-5088 (11088)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$676.26

Value

$801.02

PnL

+$124.76

Record

50%

24110-23737 (47847)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.08

Value

$41.61

PnL

+$2.53

Record

59%

44263-30624 (74887)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$13.66

Value

$17.18

PnL

+$3.53

Record

58%

40396-29173 (69569)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.24

Value

$11.85

PnL

-$25.39

Record

50%

32583-32122 (64705)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$11.33

Value

$11.2

PnL

-$3.37

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

Bayupati<$100

Invested

$6.39

Value

$7.32

PnL

+$0.93

Record

50%

182-179 (361)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

6000-5088 (11088)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.