FCI Levadia Tallinn vs. Tartu JK Tammeka: O/U 4.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$49.14

Smart Money Entry

84.9¢ → 92¢

+8% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,110

Combined PnL+$78.76

Over2 traders

Total Value$118.54

Total Shares1,482

Combined PnL-$29.62

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 85¢	$939.43	$1.0K	+$77.17	59% 44290-30654 (74944)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 10.1¢	$142.77	$113.14	-$29.62	50% 24135-23755 (47890)
RO Rocky31CTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$5.4	$5.4	+$0	73% 1437-531 (1968)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 62.2¢	$3.32	$4.91	+$1.59	54% 2609-2230 (4839)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$939.43

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$77.17

Record

59%

44290-30654 (74944)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$142.77

Value

$113.14

PnL

-$29.62

Record

50%

24135-23755 (47890)

Rocky31CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.4

PnL

+$0

Record

73%

1437-531 (1968)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$3.32

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$1.59

Record

54%

2609-2230 (4839)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 92%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.