Will Tartu JK Tammeka win on 2026-10-27?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 66¢ · $725 held · ended Oct 27

Yes34¢No66¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$724.67

Combined PnL

-$104.43

Smart Money Entry

90.3¢ → 66¢

-27% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$542.22

Total Shares678

Combined PnL-$109.28

Yes1 trader

Total Value$10.72

Total Shares24

Combined PnL+$4.85

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 91.2¢	$456.98	$343.25	-$113.73	50% 11942-12092 (24034)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 87.5¢	$187.62	$192.05	+$4.44	50% 24110-23737 (47847)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 80.7¢	$142.6	$171.72	+$29.12	59% 44263-30624 (74887)
└ No leg	Noavg 80.7¢	$123.6	$104.94	-$18.66
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9¢	$19	$66.78	+$47.78
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.8¢	$5.87	$10.72	+$4.85	54% 2570-2206 (4776)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 92¢	$4.6	$4.65	+$0.05	54% 6000-5088 (11088)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$96.34	$2.27	-$0.03	58% 40396-29173 (69569)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$456.98

Value

$343.25

PnL

-$113.73

Record

50%

11942-12092 (24034)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$187.62

Value

$192.05

PnL

+$4.44

Record

50%

24110-23737 (47847)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$142.6

Value

$171.72

PnL

+$29.12

Record

59%

44263-30624 (74887)

Both legs:

Invested

$5.87

Value

$10.72

PnL

+$4.85

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

6000-5088 (11088)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$96.34

Value

$2.27

PnL

-$0.03

Record

58%

40396-29173 (69569)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.