Will FCI Levadia Tallinn win on 2026-10-27?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 64¢ · $998 held · ended Oct 27

Yes36¢No64¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$998.22

Combined PnL

-$67.27

Smart Money Entry

40.7¢ → 64¢

+57% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$691.29

Total Shares775

Combined PnL+$204.77

No3 traders

Total Value$306.58

Total Shares1,340

Combined PnL-$272.04

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 55.2¢	$469.83	$671.37	+$201.54	59% 44263-30624 (74887)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 46.6¢	$439.2	$169.76	-$269.44	50% 11942-12092 (24034)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 39.7¢	$57.75	$91.58	+$0.39	54% 2570-2206 (4776)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 19.2¢	$48.24	$45.24	-$3	50% 24110-23737 (47847)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 68.7¢	$16.69	$19.92	+$3.23	54% 6000-5088 (11088)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$469.83

Value

$671.37

PnL

+$201.54

Record

59%

44263-30624 (74887)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$439.2

Value

$169.76

PnL

-$269.44

Record

50%

11942-12092 (24034)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$57.75

Value

$91.58

PnL

+$0.39

Record

54%

2570-2206 (4776)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$48.24

Value

$45.24

PnL

-$3

Record

50%

24110-23737 (47847)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.69

Value

$19.92

PnL

+$3.23

Record

54%

6000-5088 (11088)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.