Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 31

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 80%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$794.75

Smart Money Entry

81.9¢ → 99.6¢

+22% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares6,913

Combined PnL+$887.23

Over2 traders

Total Value$261.68

Total Shares720

Combined PnL-$92.48

Under — 80%Over — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 85.1¢	$3.6K	$4.2K	+$613.24	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 80¢	$989.45	$1.0K	+$53.82	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
RN1	Underavg 80.9¢	$725.14	$839.15	+$114.01	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 62¢	$270.38	$428.23	+$157.86	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
LI Lilybaeum	Underavg 81¢	$272.44	$212.3	-$60.14	62% 13707-8571 (22278)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 55¢	$260.56	$170.55	-$90.01	58% 41916-30432 (72348)
SA Saber-greedCTR<$100	Overavg 38¢	$93.59	$91.13	-$2.46	59% 2554-1782 (4336)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Underavg 50¢	$27.5	$34.65	+$7.98	48% 922-993 (1915)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 74¢	$2.85	$2.42	-$0.42	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 50¢	$1.03	$1.92	+$0.89	53% 4633-4164 (8797)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,623.2

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$613.24

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$989.45

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$53.82

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

RN1

Under

Invested

$725.14

Value

$839.15

PnL

+$114.01

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$270.38

Value

$428.23

PnL

+$157.86

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

Lilybaeum

Under

Invested

$272.44

Value

$212.3

PnL

-$60.14

Record

62%

13707-8571 (22278)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$260.56

Value

$170.55

PnL

-$90.01

Record

58%

41916-30432 (72348)

Saber-greedCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$93.59

Value

$91.13

PnL

-$2.46

Record

59%

2554-1782 (4336)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Under

Invested

$27.5

Value

$34.65

PnL

+$7.98

Record

48%

922-993 (1915)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.42

PnL

-$0.42

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.92

PnL

+$0.89

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Under 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.