Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. Girona FC: O/U 1.5
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 73¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 78%
$4.5K
$1.8K
44.3¢ → 72.5¢
+64% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 56¢ | $936.46 | $1.5K | +$536.48 | 54% 56601-48769 (105370) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 33.2¢ | $470.9 | $1.3K | +$842.97 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 43.2¢ | $562.45 | $1.1K | +$536.89 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 79¢ | $474 | $390 | -$84 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
SA Saber-greedCTR | Overavg 65¢ | $189.16 | $189.16 | -$0 | 59% 2554-1782 (4336) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388<$100 | Underavg 21¢ | $9.75 | $16.26 | -$0.23 | 55% 1743-1435 (3178) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $10.26 | $10.91 | +$0.66 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 58.3¢ | $6.44 | $10.61 | +$4.17 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $3.8 | +$0 | 49% 12639-13031 (25670) |
RN1Invested
$936.46
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$536.48
Record
54%
56601-48769 (105370)
Invested
$470.9
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$842.97
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Invested
$562.45
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$536.89
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$474
Value
$390
PnL
-$84
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
Invested
$189.16
Value
$189.16
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
2554-1782 (4336)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$16.26
PnL
-$0.23
Record
55%
1743-1435 (3178)
Invested
$10.26
Value
$10.91
PnL
+$0.66
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$6.44
Value
$10.61
PnL
+$4.17
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
12639-13031 (25670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.