Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2026-10-31?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 79¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 31

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 89%

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$21.7

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 78.5¢

+27% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$5.2K

Total Shares6,426

Combined PnL-$32.18

Yes1 trader

Total Value$37.21

Total Shares60

Combined PnL+$10.48

No — 89%Yes — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 65.7¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$223.54	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 58.8¢	$948.76	$1.1K	+$158	62% 13707-8571 (22278)
ZaiZoiBele	Noavg 65.6¢	$550.57	$631.27	-$146.14	80% 5044-1245 (6289)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 52.3¢	$274.65	$352.81	+$78.16	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 49.7¢	$210.69	$273.51	+$62.82	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 51.9¢	$58.25	$86.37	+$28.12	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
LA lavendergoomsCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.5¢	$28.93	$37.21	+$10.48	52% 2623-2375 (4998)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 51.6¢	$21.69	$32.39	+$10.7	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 73.9¢	$11.5	$11.19	-$0.31	53% 4633-4164 (8797)

RN1

Invested

$2,927.09

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$223.54

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

Lilybaeum

Invested

$948.76

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$158

Record

62%

13707-8571 (22278)

ZaiZoiBele

Invested

$550.57

Value

$631.27

PnL

-$146.14

Record

80%

5044-1245 (6289)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$274.65

Value

$352.81

PnL

+$78.16

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$210.69

Value

$273.51

PnL

+$62.82

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$58.25

Value

$86.37

PnL

+$28.12

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

lavendergoomsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.93

Value

$37.21

PnL

+$10.48

Record

52%

2623-2375 (4998)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$21.69

Value

$32.39

PnL

+$10.7

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$11.19

PnL

-$0.31

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.