Will Girona FC win on 2026-10-31?

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 82¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

-$487.11

Smart Money Entry

70.2¢ → 81.5¢

+16% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares6,715

Combined PnL+$449.4

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares8,784

Combined PnL-$936.51

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 69.3¢	$3.0K	$3.5K	+$526.35	59% 45810-32163 (77973)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 75.7¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$80.74	50% 25095-24835 (49930)
ZaiZoiBeleCTR	Yesavg 34.1¢	$1.7K	$791.74	-$935.18	80% 5044-1245 (6289)
fraj0laCTR	Yesavg 47.9¢	$499.91	$505.87	+$5.96	64% 230-132 (362)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 18¢	$276.84	$284.53	+$7.69	54% 56596-48765 (105361)
CA Cannae	Noavg 52.7¢	$185.71	$184.18	-$1.85	53% 15954-14130 (30084)
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Yesavg 20.9¢	$184	$182.51	-$1.49	67% 23332-11736 (35068)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 20.9¢	$109.99	$107.86	-$2.13
└ No leg	Noavg 78.8¢	$74.01	$74.65	+$0.64
LI Lilybaeum	Noavg 79.1¢	$139.28	$143.58	+$4.3	62% 13706-8571 (22277)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Yesavg 19¢	$134.71	$131.16	-$3.54	59% 30467-21185 (51652)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 47.7¢	$79.68	$80.94	+$1.26	58% 28689-21179 (49868)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.6¢	$60.82	$50.57	-$10.25	49% 7958-8291 (16249)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 53¢	$50.25	$49.78	-$0.47	51% 6003-5696 (11699)
KY Kyn008<$100	Noavg 52¢	$21.67	$21.46	-$0.21	49% 237-250 (487)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.4¢	$15.23	$12.78	-$2.44	59% 10160-7156 (17316)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 82¢	$8.2	$8.15	-$0.05	49% 12639-13031 (25670)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 66.1¢	$3.7	$4.56	+$0.86	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
RE retarb<$100	Noavg 59¢	$6.93	$1.78	+$1.21	48% 4219-4491 (8710)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$3,002.3

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$526.35

Record

59%

45810-32163 (77973)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,791.4

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$80.74

Record

50%

25095-24835 (49930)

ZaiZoiBeleCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,726.92

Value

$791.74

PnL

-$935.18

Record

80%

5044-1245 (6289)

fraj0laCTR

Yes

Invested

$499.91

Value

$505.87

PnL

+$5.96

Record

64%

230-132 (362)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$276.84

Value

$284.53

PnL

+$7.69

Record

54%

56596-48765 (105361)

Cannae

Invested

$185.71

Value

$184.18

PnL

-$1.85

Record

53%

15954-14130 (30084)

pauleta23ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$184

Value

$182.51

PnL

-$1.49

Record

67%

23332-11736 (35068)

Both legs:

Yes$109.9920.9¢-$2.13

No$74.0178.8¢+$0.64

Lilybaeum

Invested

$139.28

Value

$143.58

PnL

+$4.3

Record

62%

13706-8571 (22277)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Yes

Invested

$134.71

Value

$131.16

PnL

-$3.54

Record

59%

30467-21185 (51652)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$79.68

Value

$80.94

PnL

+$1.26

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.82

Value

$50.57

PnL

-$10.25

Record

49%

7958-8291 (16249)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$50.25

Value

$49.78

PnL

-$0.47

Record

51%

6003-5696 (11699)

Kyn008<$100

Invested

$21.67

Value

$21.46

PnL

-$0.21

Record

49%

237-250 (487)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.23

Value

$12.78

PnL

-$2.44

Record

59%

10160-7156 (17316)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$8.2

Value

$8.15

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$4.56

PnL

+$0.86

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

retarb<$100

Invested

$6.93

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$1.21

Record

48%

4219-4491 (8710)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.