UD Las Palmas vs. CD Eldense: O/U 2.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 91¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 9

Over10¢Under90¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$2.4K

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 90.5¢

+70% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over10%

Under91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares8,498

Combined PnL+$2.5K

Over3 traders

Total Value$557.91

Total Shares1,960

Combined PnL-$77.11

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 46¢	$4.8K	$4.1K	+$1.9K	31% 60-136 (196)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$3.6K	$2.2K	$-1.5K	50% 32-32 (64)
└ Under leg	Underavg 81.5¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$132.55
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$2.0K	$474.69	$-1.6K
PL plusti	Underavg 53¢	$726.41	$1.3K	+$622.64	14% 3-18 (21)
RN1	Underavg 72.8¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$81.14	54% 230-196 (426)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 32.8¢	$559.34	$485.96	-$73.38	48% 35-38 (73)
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9	Underavg 82.6¢	$147.79	$157.84	+$10.05	— 6-1 (7)
ZaiZoiBele	Underavg 76.8¢	$88.3	$102.93	+$14.63	5% 4-79 (83)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 30¢	$75	$71.25	-$3.75	38% 88-145 (233)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 61.8¢	$36.63	$42.39	+$5.77	46% 38-45 (83)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 46¢	$20	$16.7	+$7.5	24% 81-262 (343)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$0.67	$0.7	+$0.03	23% 45-152 (197)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$4,800.47

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$1.9K

Record

31%

60-136 (196)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,647.54

Value

$2.2K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

50%

32-32 (64)

Both legs:

Under$1,553.181.5¢+$132.55

Over$2,024.0349¢$-1.6K

plusti

Under

Invested

$726.41

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$622.64

Record

14%

3-18 (21)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,218.66

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$81.14

Record

54%

230-196 (426)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$559.34

Value

$485.96

PnL

-$73.38

Record

48%

35-38 (73)

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9

Under

Invested

$147.79

Value

$157.84

PnL

+$10.05

Record

—

6-1 (7)

ZaiZoiBele

Under

Invested

$88.3

Value

$102.93

PnL

+$14.63

Record

4-79 (83)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$75

Value

$71.25

PnL

-$3.75

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$36.63

Value

$42.39

PnL

+$5.77

Record

46%

38-45 (83)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$20

Value

$16.7

PnL

+$7.5

Record

24%

81-262 (343)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.7

PnL

+$0.03

Record

23%

45-152 (197)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 91%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.