Will CD Eldense win on 2026-11-08?

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 81¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9

Yes20¢No80¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$42.37

Smart Money Entry

74.3¢ → 80.5¢

+8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,250

Combined PnL+$61.39

Yes8 traders

Total Value$223.15

Total Shares1,112

Combined PnL-$103.77

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
snoopy.trader	Noavg 73.2¢	$332.21	$365.38	+$33.17	2% 2-127 (129)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 74¢	$262.32	$281.38	+$19.05	50% 32-32 (64)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 75.1¢	$254.65	$272.85	+$18.19	38% 88-145 (233)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.6¢	$92.36	$91.76	-$0.6	24% 83-258 (341)
LI Limousin	Noavg 76.8¢	$117.85	$87.75	+$1.57	24% 86-278 (364)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 24.3¢	$52.61	$40	-$12.61	24% 81-262 (343)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 44.2¢	$84.73	$37.4	-$47.33	18% 39-174 (213)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 76¢	$42.86	$32.27	-$10.59	31% 60-136 (196)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$33.3	$26.08	-$7.22	20% 30-117 (147)
SP spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100	Yesavg 54.1¢	$54.15	$18.5	-$35.65	2% 2-119 (121)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$7.28	$7.1	-$0.19	46% 38-45 (83)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$1.58	$1.35	-$0.23	54% 230-196 (426)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$0.9	$0.96	+$0.06	7% 11-156 (167)

snoopy.trader

Invested

$332.21

Value

$365.38

PnL

+$33.17

Record

2-127 (129)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$262.32

Value

$281.38

PnL

+$19.05

Record

50%

32-32 (64)

cigarettes

Invested

$254.65

Value

$272.85

PnL

+$18.19

Record

38%

88-145 (233)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.36

Value

$91.76

PnL

-$0.6

Record

24%

83-258 (341)

Limousin

Invested

$117.85

Value

$87.75

PnL

+$1.57

Record

24%

86-278 (364)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.61

Value

$40

PnL

-$12.61

Record

24%

81-262 (343)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.73

Value

$37.4

PnL

-$47.33

Record

18%

39-174 (213)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$42.86

Value

$32.27

PnL

-$10.59

Record

31%

60-136 (196)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.3

Value

$26.08

PnL

-$7.22

Record

20%

30-117 (147)

spyGoodLuck77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.15

Value

$18.5

PnL

-$35.65

Record

2-119 (121)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.28

Value

$7.1

PnL

-$0.19

Record

46%

38-45 (83)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.58

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.23

Record

54%

230-196 (426)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$0.96

PnL

+$0.06

Record

11-156 (167)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.