Will UD Las Palmas vs. CD Eldense end in a draw?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 70¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
2 arb excluded
$1.0K
$9.76
72.3¢ → 69.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 72¢ | $358.35 | $365.92 | +$7.57 | — |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $218.19 | $222.64 | +$4.45 | — |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72¢ | $160.3 | $161.41 | +$3.34 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26¢ | $57.89 | $61.23 | +$1.11 | |
GC GC-PARB<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $236.76 | $186.27 | +$1.86 | — |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72¢ | $134.61 | $135.55 | +$0.93 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26¢ | $47.95 | $50.72 | +$0.92 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 73¢ | $158.4 | $159.5 | +$1.1 | — |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $48.1 | $48.44 | +$0.33 | — |
BI biying99999<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $29.52 | $29.73 | +$0.21 | — |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $24.94 | $25.4 | +$0.46 | — |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $4.86 | $4.95 | +$0.09 | — |
Invested
$358.35
Value
$365.92
PnL
+$7.57
Record
—
Invested
$218.19
Value
$222.64
PnL
+$4.45
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$236.76
Value
$186.27
PnL
+$1.86
Record
—
Both legs:
Invested
$158.4
Value
$159.5
PnL
+$1.1
Record
—
Invested
$48.1
Value
$48.44
PnL
+$0.33
Record
—
Invested
$29.52
Value
$29.73
PnL
+$0.21
Record
—
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$24.94
Value
$25.4
PnL
+$0.46
Record
—
Invested
$4.86
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.09
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.