Will Granada CF win on 2026-11-01?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 66¢ · $458 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$457.93
-$1.63
66.2¢ → 66¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 66.4¢ | $272.68 | $271.15 | -$1.53 | 53% 16110-14274 (30384) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Noavg 66¢ | $132 | $132 | -$0 | 54% 4939-4170 (9109) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $41.58 | $41.58 | +$0 | 57% 29212-21600 (50812) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 66.5¢ | $13.3 | $13.2 | -$0.1 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
Invested
$272.68
Value
$271.15
PnL
-$1.53
Record
53%
16110-14274 (30384)
Invested
$132
Value
$132
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
4939-4170 (9109)
Invested
$41.58
Value
$41.58
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
29212-21600 (50812)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$13.3
Value
$13.2
PnL
-$0.1
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.