Will CD Eldense vs. Granada CF end in a draw?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$1.5K
$433.46
75.3¢ → 85¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 75.5¢ | $1.0K | $1.4K | +$403.69 | 54% 57169-49417 (106586) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $65.85 | $86.92 | +$21.07 | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $9.7 | $15.48 | +$5.79 | 58% 10670-7656 (18326) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $6.37 | $9.28 | +$2.9 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
RN1Invested
$1,000.51
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$403.69
Record
54%
57169-49417 (106586)
Invested
$65.85
Value
$86.92
PnL
+$21.07
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
poshposh<$100Invested
$9.7
Value
$15.48
PnL
+$5.79
Record
58%
10670-7656 (18326)
Invested
$6.37
Value
$9.28
PnL
+$2.9
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.